4 ms·

For all people don't like the conclusions he came to in his own time, he made falsifiable predictions about the future and I'd much rather people debated those

For all people don't like the conclusions he came to in his own time, he made falsifiable predictions about the future and I'd much rather people debated those than the merits of the man who made them.

082349872349872 6y ago
Could you please summarise the predictions for us? It'll take me a while to get to, and through, Der Untergang des Abendlandes[1], so I'm unlikely to reply in a timely manner otherwise. From what I know so far[2] I am prejudiced against it, in that ascribing seasons to civilisations (Spring/Summer/Fall/Winter) strikes me as being parallel to "technical analysis" for stocks: possibly useful for historians in description, but anyone who attempts to apply the model for prediction should hope to be lucky. [1] I agree with the characterisation of the Washington Consensus as Faustian, and the title of this book might help explain why the Nazis were so obsessed with Saving The West (even if it didn't wish to be saved) from Jewish Communism. Goebbels, apud https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24141227 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24141227 > "Die europäischen Mächte stehen hier vor ihrer entscheidenden Lebensfrage. Das Abendland ist in Gefahr. Ob ihre Regierungen und ihre Intelligenzschichten das einsehen wollen oder nicht, ist dabei gänzlich unerheblich." European powers are faced with an existential crisis. The West is in danger. Whether their governments and their intellectuals will admit it or not is irrelevant. > "Die Welt hat also nicht die Wahl zwischen einem in seine alte Zersplitterung zurückfallenden und einem unter der Achsenführung sich neu ordnenden Europa, sondern nur die zwischen einem unter dem militärischen Schutz der Achse stehenden und einem bolschewistischen Europa." Therefore the world doesn't face the choice between falling back into its old divisions or joining a New Axis Order, but only the choice between accepting the military protection of the Axis or becoming Communist. [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Decline_of_the_West https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Decline_of_the_West The propaganda importance of a Faustian West in decline to be replaced by a Caesarian successor was noted by Linebarger, http://www.gutenberg.org/files/48612/48612-h/48612-h.htm#Page_77 http://www.gutenberg.org/files/48612/48612-h/48612-h.htm#Pag... > "... in the political warfare field, [the Germans] succeeded in making large sections of world opinion believe that the world's future was a choice between Communism and Fascism. Since they and the Communists agreed on this the point seemed well taken. Actually, there is no historical or economic justification for supposing that those two forms of dictatorship constitute a real choice in the first place, or that the civilized and truly free countries need ever depart from their ancient freedoms in the second place." I believe this report of a false dichotomy because it (enforced by armed private militiamen!) was also noted by Weil.
- SuoDuanDao 6y ago
  There are a lot, and I'm by no means an expert myself, but a few that seem fairly recognisable in our world today would be >New civilizations emerging at the periphery of the declining ones' sphere of influence >A rise in strongmen or dictators (ceaserism) >resurgent popularity of religion
  - 082349872349872 6y ago
    Hmm. Guess I'll have to do some reading after all. > New civilizations emerging at the periphery... Well, they're unlikely to emerge within another's sphere, aren't they? Unless they're exceedingly civilised, civilisations behave like cuckoos to their neighbours. > A rise in strongmen or dictators Good point. I'll keep this in mind when reading Spengler, but as for two famous strongmen, I believe more parsimonious explanations are: (a) Putin : neo-feudalism is what one gets when russians spend the 1980's deciding the capitalists had valid criticisms of communism, then the 1990's deciding the communists had valid criticisms of capitalism. (b) Xi : his decisions are backed because they are popular in china, not the other way around. and as for the third, I'm willing to wait until 2021 to collect more data, but note that his military has been, in writing, disinclined to cross the Rubicon. > resurgent popularity of religion [citation needed] Even in the US context, imx much more religious than ours, religion isn't resurging. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_the_United_States#Change_in_religious_identification,_1950-2019_(Gallup) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_the_United_States#... TL;DR: unfalsifiable, true, false? TIL Alea iacta est referred to ἀνερρίφθω κύβος (and is referred to by finyish du wedzha). https://laudatortemporisacti.blogspot.com/2017/12/let-die-be-cast.html https://laudatortemporisacti.blogspot.com/2017/12/let-die-be...
    - OpticalWindows 6y ago
      >Well, they're unlikely to emerge within another's sphere, aren't they? Unless they're exceedingly civilised, civilisations behave like cuckoos to their neighbours. How would you describe christianity in the roman empire? I might considerit a 'new civilization' once it was adpoted. In the US, religion is in severe decline in any place near or in a city. Rural religious communities are hanging on by threads. I've seen church closings and communities that have adopted agnostic beliefs fairly qucikly in the last 4 years. Immigrants do bring a lot of religious people here but their children usually do not conform to those beliefs.
yowlingcat 6y ago
I'm a little disappointed by comments I'm seeing here that are basically to the effect of "it's 'troubling' or 'disturbing' to promote the thoughts of such an undemocratic thinker." To your point, I think that not only are his predictions about the future falsifiable, but the structure itself has issues. I don't disagree with the whole notion of the cycle of seasons applied to civilizations. I think that is actually a very useful frame that connects humankind to nature and the circle of life that we could do more of. But if he wishes to use the vehicle of the cycle, then he must accept all of its implications, not just the ones which are convenient to him. From "winter" comes "spring." But according to the article "this ‘feeling’ is a remembrance rather than an anticipation. " Why should we accept this frame? > The time of birth and rejuvenation is forever finished, metaphorically speaking. In this present phase, Spengler’s prophesising limns an authoritative ruler or ‘new emperor’ who emerges in response to the disintegration of culture. He called this the Caesarian age. It is true that many empires of old were hereditary monarchies of strongmen rulers. Perhaps even today we see authoritarian governments with long running proto-monarchs. But will their tenure survive their lifespans? Have they built a resilient enough structure to do so? The truth is that if his own analogy holds, nature eventually "conquers" man, and winter always gives way to spring. Every empire crumbles back into nature under a relatively long timespan. If this is the case, isn't his idea of a Caesarian age somewhat optimistic and naive? Perhaps even ironically so for someone so commonly known as a pessimist.
- gtt 6y ago
  >I'm a little disappointed by comments I'm seeing here Decline of the west
  - yowlingcat 6y ago
    I really did set myself up for that one, huh?
082349872349872 6y ago
One falsifiable prediction. In chapter XI, which reads like GPT trained on Alan Sokal and QAnon[1], he says exact science arose in the eighteenth, peaked in the nineteenth, and will decline over the twentieth. From the vantage of the twenty-first, I say: false. [1] examples: "Above all, this is manifested in the bizarre hypotheses of atomic disintegration which elucidate the phenomena of radioactivity ... With ideas like these the mythopoetic force of the Faustian soul is returning to its origins." "Every physics, as I have shown, must break down over the motion-problem, in which the living person of the knower methodically intrudes into the inorganic form-world of the known." Force is "(1) in the 17th century (Galileo, Newton, Leibniz) ... pictorially formed and in unison with the great art of oil-painting that died out about 1630: (2) in the 18th century (...Laplace, Lagrange...) ... abstract character of the fugue style and is in unison with Bach ...(3) with the Culture at its end ... the theory of functions of several complex variables ..." etc. etc.

082349872349872 6y ago

Could you please summarise the predictions for us? It'll take me a while to get to, and through, Der Untergang des Abendlandes[1], so I'm unlikely to reply in a timely manner otherwise. From what I know so far[2] I am prejudiced against it, in that ascribing seasons to civilisations (Spring/Summer/Fall/Winter) strikes me as being parallel to "technical analysis" for stocks: possibly useful for historians in description, but anyone who attempts to apply the model for prediction should hope to be lucky. [1] I agree with the characterisation of the Washington Consensus as Faustian, and the title of this book might help explain why the Nazis were so obsessed with Saving The West (even if it didn't wish to be saved) from Jewish Communism. Goebbels, apud https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24141227 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24141227 > "Die europäischen Mächte stehen hier vor ihrer entscheidenden Lebensfrage. Das Abendland ist in Gefahr. Ob ihre Regierungen und ihre Intelligenzschichten das einsehen wollen oder nicht, ist dabei gänzlich unerheblich." European powers are faced with an existential crisis. The West is in danger. Whether their governments and their intellectuals will admit it or not is irrelevant. > "Die Welt hat also nicht die Wahl zwischen einem in seine alte Zersplitterung zurückfallenden und einem unter der Achsenführung sich neu ordnenden Europa, sondern nur die zwischen einem unter dem militärischen Schutz der Achse stehenden und einem bolschewistischen Europa." Therefore the world doesn't face the choice between falling back into its old divisions or joining a New Axis Order, but only the choice between accepting the military protection of the Axis or becoming Communist. [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Decline_of_the_West https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Decline_of_the_West The propaganda importance of a Faustian West in decline to be replaced by a Caesarian successor was noted by Linebarger, http://www.gutenberg.org/files/48612/48612-h/48612-h.htm#Page_77 http://www.gutenberg.org/files/48612/48612-h/48612-h.htm#Pag... > "... in the political warfare field, [the Germans] succeeded in making large sections of world opinion believe that the world's future was a choice between Communism and Fascism. Since they and the Communists agreed on this the point seemed well taken. Actually, there is no historical or economic justification for supposing that those two forms of dictatorship constitute a real choice in the first place, or that the civilized and truly free countries need ever depart from their ancient freedoms in the second place." I believe this report of a false dichotomy because it (enforced by armed private militiamen!) was also noted by Weil.

SuoDuanDao 6y ago
There are a lot, and I'm by no means an expert myself, but a few that seem fairly recognisable in our world today would be >New civilizations emerging at the periphery of the declining ones' sphere of influence >A rise in strongmen or dictators (ceaserism) >resurgent popularity of religion
- 082349872349872 6y ago
  Hmm. Guess I'll have to do some reading after all. > New civilizations emerging at the periphery... Well, they're unlikely to emerge within another's sphere, aren't they? Unless they're exceedingly civilised, civilisations behave like cuckoos to their neighbours. > A rise in strongmen or dictators Good point. I'll keep this in mind when reading Spengler, but as for two famous strongmen, I believe more parsimonious explanations are: (a) Putin : neo-feudalism is what one gets when russians spend the 1980's deciding the capitalists had valid criticisms of communism, then the 1990's deciding the communists had valid criticisms of capitalism. (b) Xi : his decisions are backed because they are popular in china, not the other way around. and as for the third, I'm willing to wait until 2021 to collect more data, but note that his military has been, in writing, disinclined to cross the Rubicon. > resurgent popularity of religion [citation needed] Even in the US context, imx much more religious than ours, religion isn't resurging. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_the_United_States#Change_in_religious_identification,_1950-2019_(Gallup) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_the_United_States#... TL;DR: unfalsifiable, true, false? TIL Alea iacta est referred to ἀνερρίφθω κύβος (and is referred to by finyish du wedzha). https://laudatortemporisacti.blogspot.com/2017/12/let-die-be-cast.html https://laudatortemporisacti.blogspot.com/2017/12/let-die-be...
  - OpticalWindows 6y ago
    >Well, they're unlikely to emerge within another's sphere, aren't they? Unless they're exceedingly civilised, civilisations behave like cuckoos to their neighbours. How would you describe christianity in the roman empire? I might considerit a 'new civilization' once it was adpoted. In the US, religion is in severe decline in any place near or in a city. Rural religious communities are hanging on by threads. I've seen church closings and communities that have adopted agnostic beliefs fairly qucikly in the last 4 years. Immigrants do bring a lot of religious people here but their children usually do not conform to those beliefs.

yowlingcat 6y ago

I'm a little disappointed by comments I'm seeing here that are basically to the effect of "it's 'troubling' or 'disturbing' to promote the thoughts of such an undemocratic thinker." To your point, I think that not only are his predictions about the future falsifiable, but the structure itself has issues. I don't disagree with the whole notion of the cycle of seasons applied to civilizations. I think that is actually a very useful frame that connects humankind to nature and the circle of life that we could do more of. But if he wishes to use the vehicle of the cycle, then he must accept all of its implications, not just the ones which are convenient to him. From "winter" comes "spring." But according to the article "this ‘feeling’ is a remembrance rather than an anticipation. " Why should we accept this frame? > The time of birth and rejuvenation is forever finished, metaphorically speaking. In this present phase, Spengler’s prophesising limns an authoritative ruler or ‘new emperor’ who emerges in response to the disintegration of culture. He called this the Caesarian age. It is true that many empires of old were hereditary monarchies of strongmen rulers. Perhaps even today we see authoritarian governments with long running proto-monarchs. But will their tenure survive their lifespans? Have they built a resilient enough structure to do so? The truth is that if his own analogy holds, nature eventually "conquers" man, and winter always gives way to spring. Every empire crumbles back into nature under a relatively long timespan. If this is the case, isn't his idea of a Caesarian age somewhat optimistic and naive? Perhaps even ironically so for someone so commonly known as a pessimist.

gtt 6y ago
>I'm a little disappointed by comments I'm seeing here Decline of the west
- yowlingcat 6y ago
  I really did set myself up for that one, huh?

082349872349872 6y ago

One falsifiable prediction. In chapter XI, which reads like GPT trained on Alan Sokal and QAnon[1], he says exact science arose in the eighteenth, peaked in the nineteenth, and will decline over the twentieth. From the vantage of the twenty-first, I say: false. [1] examples: "Above all, this is manifested in the bizarre hypotheses of atomic disintegration which elucidate the phenomena of radioactivity ... With ideas like these the mythopoetic force of the Faustian soul is returning to its origins." "Every physics, as I have shown, must break down over the motion-problem, in which the living person of the knower methodically intrudes into the inorganic form-world of the known." Force is "(1) in the 17th century (Galileo, Newton, Leibniz) ... pictorially formed and in unison with the great art of oil-painting that died out about 1630: (2) in the 18th century (...Laplace, Lagrange...) ... abstract character of the fugue style and is in unison with Bach ...(3) with the Culture at its end ... the theory of functions of several complex variables ..." etc. etc.