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Unfortunately, it's difficult to conclude that children are the "key" to superspreading, because the study suffers from the same limitation as the South Korean
by argonaut 6y ago
Unfortunately, it's difficult to conclude that children are the "key" to superspreading, because the study suffers from the same limitation as the South Korean study the media used to make the same claim.
Which is that it's impossible to determine the direction of transmission. Just because someone (a child or young adult) developed symptoms first doesn't mean they actually got infected first, they might have actually gotten infected at the same time as their supposed contact. When the South Korean study removed cases of shared exposure, the new study found those children did not in fact transmit very much. https://twitter.com/apsmunro/status/1311616493445165058 https://twitter.com/apsmunro/status/1311616493445165058
This Twitter discussion does not make me think they did anything differently than the South Korean study that was later corrected: https://twitter.com/apsmunro/status/1312301601156194304 https://twitter.com/apsmunro/status/1312301601156194304
- twic 6y ago> it's difficult to conclude that children are the "key" to superspreading Not only does the study not show that, the press release doesn't even claim that - it contains two separate claims, that superspreading is important, and that children are involved in spread. It's only the use of a comma in the headline that - through incompetence or dishonesty - suggests that! Mods, could we have the title changed, please? EDIT: Mods changed the title already, thanks mods!
- azalemeth 6y agoYes -- thank you -- incompetence rather than dishonesty on my part. Sorry!
- dehrmann 6y agoThe one interesting point I saw that doesn't have some sort of caveat was this: > The researchers found that the chances of a person with coronavirus, regardless of their age, passing it on to a close contact [were] 9% in the household.