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Physical distancing, mask-wearing could be in place for 2-3 years with vaccine

GhostVII 6y ago
This article is from two months ago. Not long normally, but a lot has changed with COVID since.
- _ZeD_ 6y ago
  onestly, no. Not much has changed since two months ago.
- akmarinov 6y ago
  You’re right, It’s starting to get worse with the cold weather.
dibujaron 6y ago
This headline is bait. The article says that it's only 2-3 years if the vaccines aren't effective. We'll almost certainly have an effective vaccine in that time frame, everyone and their mother is working on one.
- acqq 6y ago
  > if the vaccines aren't effective The common public expectation is that “effective” means “one would not even catch the virus and won’t be able to transmit it to the others with the vaccine. In reality, “effective” could mean “those with vaccine and good response to it will get less sick.” Which is something, but then, some would not even get a good response, and still could get very sick, and they also won’t know that the vaccine they received can’t protect them. And everybody with a vaccine would still be able to infect the vulnerable at least during their own asymptomatic period. With the flu vaccines the older often aren’t fully protected, only some percent of them. Immunology is complicated. https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/501677-what-is-sterilizing-immunity-and-do-we-need-it https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-c...
  - aoxe98654 6y ago
    you know... older people weren't fully protected from death before covid
acqq 6y ago
I wrote about exactly that 10 days ago here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24567159 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24567159 The main part about that topic: “If it turns out that even vaccinated people can spread the virus (as in: "they can still become infected and only get less sick"), and that is estimated as very probable by the experts at the moment, the existence of other vaccinated people will not protect the high risk groups -- the so-called "herd" will never protect them, only the vaccine, and only if it works for them. Which they won't know in advance: The experts also don't expect too high protection of the vaccine, as it is known that vulnerable are only some percentages protected by the similar vaccines (sometimes even less than 50%). So the masks can turn out to remain more important than we hope at the moment: then, the estimated protection if both the infected and the vulnerable wear a good mask could be higher in many circumstances than a vaccine. That was the sound basis for this claim: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/16/cdc-director-says-face-masks-may-provide-more-protection-than-coronavirus-vaccine-.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/16/cdc-director-says-face-masks... In Redfield's own words: “If I don’t get an immune response, the vaccine is not going to protect me,” he said. “This face mask will.””
logicchains 6y ago
In Canada maybe. More and more states in the US are going back to normal, and this trend doesn't show any sign of changing.
newsbinator 6y ago
Personally, I'd be quite happy if service workers (e.g. cashiers, wait staff, receptionists, etc) wore masks permanently, regardless of what happens with Covid. If I were a service worker interacting every 5 minutes with the general public, I would want that normalized for myself. Likewise anybody who visits people's homes, or anybody who's usually in close quarters (e.g. doctors and nurses, dentists, beauty salon workers, etc) with people. Hopefully after all this mask-wearing will be as normal and expected as keeping one's breath fresh, not wearing too much cologne, etc. There'll be those who mess it up, but doing so will come with social stigma. (This is all more a wish/hope than a prediction)
- akmarinov 6y ago
  The good thing is that it’s becoming more normal.
- belltaco 6y ago
  In Japan, it's common for normal people with flu-like symptoms to wear a mask when they are in public spaces. That probably would never happen in the western countries, but would be great if it does.
- ralfindor 6y ago
  Why do you say something like this??? Just please think about the social implications and there might be benefits from being exposed to viruses etc?
- ralfindor 6y ago
  That is so crazy, even asking if this might be the right way gets me flagged :D nice one, welcome to china?
- kasperni 6y ago
  > Personally, I'd be quite happy if service workers (e.g. cashiers, wait staff, receptionists, etc) wore masks permanently, regardless of what happens with Covid. Wow, that is one of the most entitled things I have ever read. I think I can safely assume you wouldn't be in the pool of people that would have to wear a mask every day for work. Some people are working multiple simultaneous service industry jobs. This would mean they would spend most of their waking hours behind a mask for decades. All to avoid some rich asshole catching a cold.

This article is from two months ago. Not long normally, but a lot has changed with COVID since.

_ZeD_ 6y ago
onestly, no. Not much has changed since two months ago.
akmarinov 6y ago
You’re right, It’s starting to get worse with the cold weather.

This headline is bait. The article says that it's only 2-3 years if the vaccines aren't effective. We'll almost certainly have an effective vaccine in that time frame, everyone and their mother is working on one.

acqq 6y ago
> if the vaccines aren't effective The common public expectation is that “effective” means “one would not even catch the virus and won’t be able to transmit it to the others with the vaccine. In reality, “effective” could mean “those with vaccine and good response to it will get less sick.” Which is something, but then, some would not even get a good response, and still could get very sick, and they also won’t know that the vaccine they received can’t protect them. And everybody with a vaccine would still be able to infect the vulnerable at least during their own asymptomatic period. With the flu vaccines the older often aren’t fully protected, only some percent of them. Immunology is complicated. https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/501677-what-is-sterilizing-immunity-and-do-we-need-it https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-c...
- aoxe98654 6y ago
  you know... older people weren't fully protected from death before covid

acqq 6y ago

I wrote about exactly that 10 days ago here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24567159 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24567159 The main part about that topic: “If it turns out that even vaccinated people can spread the virus (as in: "they can still become infected and only get less sick"), and that is estimated as very probable by the experts at the moment, the existence of other vaccinated people will not protect the high risk groups -- the so-called "herd" will never protect them, only the vaccine, and only if it works for them. Which they won't know in advance: The experts also don't expect too high protection of the vaccine, as it is known that vulnerable are only some percentages protected by the similar vaccines (sometimes even less than 50%). So the masks can turn out to remain more important than we hope at the moment: then, the estimated protection if both the infected and the vulnerable wear a good mask could be higher in many circumstances than a vaccine. That was the sound basis for this claim: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/16/cdc-director-says-face-masks-may-provide-more-protection-than-coronavirus-vaccine-.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/16/cdc-director-says-face-masks... In Redfield's own words: “If I don’t get an immune response, the vaccine is not going to protect me,” he said. “This face mask will.””

logicchains 6y ago

In Canada maybe. More and more states in the US are going back to normal, and this trend doesn't show any sign of changing.

newsbinator 6y ago

Personally, I'd be quite happy if service workers (e.g. cashiers, wait staff, receptionists, etc) wore masks permanently, regardless of what happens with Covid. If I were a service worker interacting every 5 minutes with the general public, I would want that normalized for myself. Likewise anybody who visits people's homes, or anybody who's usually in close quarters (e.g. doctors and nurses, dentists, beauty salon workers, etc) with people. Hopefully after all this mask-wearing will be as normal and expected as keeping one's breath fresh, not wearing too much cologne, etc. There'll be those who mess it up, but doing so will come with social stigma. (This is all more a wish/hope than a prediction)

akmarinov 6y ago
The good thing is that it’s becoming more normal.
belltaco 6y ago
In Japan, it's common for normal people with flu-like symptoms to wear a mask when they are in public spaces. That probably would never happen in the western countries, but would be great if it does.
ralfindor 6y ago
Why do you say something like this??? Just please think about the social implications and there might be benefits from being exposed to viruses etc?
ralfindor 6y ago
That is so crazy, even asking if this might be the right way gets me flagged :D nice one, welcome to china?
kasperni 6y ago
> Personally, I'd be quite happy if service workers (e.g. cashiers, wait staff, receptionists, etc) wore masks permanently, regardless of what happens with Covid. Wow, that is one of the most entitled things I have ever read. I think I can safely assume you wouldn't be in the pool of people that would have to wear a mask every day for work. Some people are working multiple simultaneous service industry jobs. This would mean they would spend most of their waking hours behind a mask for decades. All to avoid some rich asshole catching a cold.