4 ms·

Situation here in NL currently is worse than it has ever been this year.

cheph 6y ago
I guess you lack some context, but if we just assume you are talking about covid, well, yeah, the positive test numbers in NL looks quite bad: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherlands https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherland... But your covid deaths are not really reflecting this rise. Same can be seen in France and Germany. Quite odd actually.
- the-dude 6y ago
  COVID is what the article starts with. The fact the death rate is not the same as earlier this year is not surprising. I am talking about my own experiences in my home town.
- IkmoIkmo 6y ago
  It's not really odd at all. For one, we're testing at about 10x the rate that we saw in the first wave, while we're at 3x the number of daily infections as during the first wave. If you test 10x more people in period B as in period A, and in both periods you have the same infection rate, you'd expect 10x as many confirmed cases. The fact we see only 3x as many daily confirmed cases despite 10x more testing, means the population is actually far less infected now than during the first wave. We simply test more. Second, the demographics of the infected has massively changed between the first and current wave: https://datagraver.com/thumbs/1300x1300r/2020-10/nl-heatd-0210.png https://datagraver.com/thumbs/1300x1300r/2020-10/nl-heatd-02... As you can see, most confirmed cases consisted of elderly during the first wave. These are now much more insulated. Young people are now mostly infected, and survive. This translates into far lower mortality and hospitalisation figures per infected. Lastly, even though there is no vaccine yet, most people survive and this requires various treatments, we've seen small improvements in these treatments, but this is mostly a matter of increased throughput due to shorter hospital stays. In short, there are actually (currently) fewer infected than during the first wave, and a lower infected to hospitalised/mortality rate. None of this is to argue that things are okay or that the current policy is sufficient. Not at all. But it's entirely not true that the current wave is worse than the first wave, even in terms of the number of infected. And there are very well known and sensible reasons for why the current wave has a lower impact on health or mortality figures.
tluyben2 6y ago
Covid wise? Measured infections yes, but not many dying anymore, as in most 'phase 2' countries. NL is very bad at making a clear line; no-one I know who lives there knows what they can and cannot do. Other countries have clear, easy to follow rules or get fined. We are polderaars; every decision must have 10000000 exceptions and it stinks. Otherwise, I am a dutchman and I used to be proud of my country, even though I left it long ago (I like large dense forests and mountains and humid heat; Netherlands very little of any of that), however there is not so much to be proud of anymore. We privatised and sold everything that should not be private or sold, we are less open, less equal, less honest, less direct, the social system is not very social anymore and we are following the USA for pc. Sure there are much worse countries, but they don't pretend to be what they are not (anymore).
- the-dude 6y ago
  We have literally abandonded our elderly citizens. The message was clear : there is no room for you on intensive care.
  - tluyben2 6y ago
    We sold our 'nhs' (ziekenfonds) in the 80s, everything went downhill from there. Rich elderly have no problems like this.
    - the-dude 6y ago
      I am not that old, but have vivid memories of the 80s ( all of them ). I told a friend : there would have been a revolt and mass strikes.
      - tluyben2 6y ago
        I am very much in favour of vital infrastructure being state-owned; klm, state banks, roads, trains, trams, hospitals, cemeteries/crematoria, pensions, vital insurance, schools/universities, police, phone/internet, army, firedeps should, in my opinion, all be state owned and free or dirt cheap (aka for every citizen) (tax money). Outside roads (? maybe now that changed too) and army (do we still have an army? I turned 18 in the last year it was mandatory; I was in uni so I did not have to go) & police, everything is private now while in the 80s most was public... Which obviously brings the perverse incentive of wanting to make as much money as you can which gives you; if you are not rich, you can't have anything.
IkmoIkmo 6y ago
That is simply not true. Infections were way higher, hospitalisations were way higher, intensive care way higher, and death way higher, earlier this year. It's not in any way worse than it has been this year.

I guess you lack some context, but if we just assume you are talking about covid, well, yeah, the positive test numbers in NL looks quite bad: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherlands https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherland... But your covid deaths are not really reflecting this rise. Same can be seen in France and Germany. Quite odd actually.

the-dude 6y ago
COVID is what the article starts with. The fact the death rate is not the same as earlier this year is not surprising. I am talking about my own experiences in my home town.
IkmoIkmo 6y ago
It's not really odd at all. For one, we're testing at about 10x the rate that we saw in the first wave, while we're at 3x the number of daily infections as during the first wave. If you test 10x more people in period B as in period A, and in both periods you have the same infection rate, you'd expect 10x as many confirmed cases. The fact we see only 3x as many daily confirmed cases despite 10x more testing, means the population is actually far less infected now than during the first wave. We simply test more. Second, the demographics of the infected has massively changed between the first and current wave: https://datagraver.com/thumbs/1300x1300r/2020-10/nl-heatd-0210.png https://datagraver.com/thumbs/1300x1300r/2020-10/nl-heatd-02... As you can see, most confirmed cases consisted of elderly during the first wave. These are now much more insulated. Young people are now mostly infected, and survive. This translates into far lower mortality and hospitalisation figures per infected. Lastly, even though there is no vaccine yet, most people survive and this requires various treatments, we've seen small improvements in these treatments, but this is mostly a matter of increased throughput due to shorter hospital stays. In short, there are actually (currently) fewer infected than during the first wave, and a lower infected to hospitalised/mortality rate. None of this is to argue that things are okay or that the current policy is sufficient. Not at all. But it's entirely not true that the current wave is worse than the first wave, even in terms of the number of infected. And there are very well known and sensible reasons for why the current wave has a lower impact on health or mortality figures.

tluyben2 6y ago

Covid wise? Measured infections yes, but not many dying anymore, as in most 'phase 2' countries. NL is very bad at making a clear line; no-one I know who lives there knows what they can and cannot do. Other countries have clear, easy to follow rules or get fined. We are polderaars; every decision must have 10000000 exceptions and it stinks. Otherwise, I am a dutchman and I used to be proud of my country, even though I left it long ago (I like large dense forests and mountains and humid heat; Netherlands very little of any of that), however there is not so much to be proud of anymore. We privatised and sold everything that should not be private or sold, we are less open, less equal, less honest, less direct, the social system is not very social anymore and we are following the USA for pc. Sure there are much worse countries, but they don't pretend to be what they are not (anymore).

the-dude 6y ago
We have literally abandonded our elderly citizens. The message was clear : there is no room for you on intensive care.
- tluyben2 6y ago
  We sold our 'nhs' (ziekenfonds) in the 80s, everything went downhill from there. Rich elderly have no problems like this.
  - the-dude 6y ago
    I am not that old, but have vivid memories of the 80s ( all of them ). I told a friend : there would have been a revolt and mass strikes.
    - tluyben2 6y ago
      I am very much in favour of vital infrastructure being state-owned; klm, state banks, roads, trains, trams, hospitals, cemeteries/crematoria, pensions, vital insurance, schools/universities, police, phone/internet, army, firedeps should, in my opinion, all be state owned and free or dirt cheap (aka for every citizen) (tax money). Outside roads (? maybe now that changed too) and army (do we still have an army? I turned 18 in the last year it was mandatory; I was in uni so I did not have to go) & police, everything is private now while in the 80s most was public... Which obviously brings the perverse incentive of wanting to make as much money as you can which gives you; if you are not rich, you can't have anything.

IkmoIkmo 6y ago

That is simply not true. Infections were way higher, hospitalisations were way higher, intensive care way higher, and death way higher, earlier this year. It's not in any way worse than it has been this year.