4 ms·

some takeaways on size and cost: * 33 million acres of forest in CA, 57% owned by the feds, 3% by CA, 14% by the logging industry, 26% by others * $200/acre f

some takeaways on size and cost: * 33 million acres of forest in CA, 57% owned by the feds, 3% by CA, 14% by the logging industry, 26% by others * $200/acre for prescribed burns, $1000/acre for thinning, ~$800/acre on average for the US fire service * 1.1 million acres need treatment each year (~$1B/year) to be effective, according to the little hoover commission * ~$2B committed by CA, but over at least 5 years * this bill would appropriate $300M/yr from feds on the flipside, it's harder to pin down benefits. they cite $9B in costs from one fire, but how much of that is (socialized) losses from excessive (private) risk-taking? it's unclear, but likely not none. how does insurance account for and/or distort that risk? none of the articles spend much time quantifying health or environmental costs (e.g., CO₂e) of forest fires on the population, and the potential reductions from better management. it's hard to take a reasonable position without knowing the magnitude of these benefits as well.

dredmorbius 6y ago
Among estimates I've seen are 20,000 homeless (I belive from 2017 fire season), another source gives 67,000 displaced in San Mateo and Santa Cruz counties alone, and as many as 3,000 premature deaths from smoke-induced air pollution, most to 65+ age groups. https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/20000-evacuees-displaced-by-fires-in-san-mateo-santa-cruz-counties/ar-BB18bQUA https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/20000-evacuees-... https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/article/Hidden-cost-of-wildfire-smoke-Stanford-15595754.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/article/Hid... Attaching costs to these is difficult. A chronically homeless person costs the tax payer an average of $35,578 per year. https://endhomelessness.org/resource/ending-chronic-homelessness-saves-taxpayers-money/ https://endhomelessness.org/resource/ending-chronic-homeless... Probably high-side, but a portion of the fire-displaced are likely to become so. If we assume half that cost, displacement alone is ~$340 million/yr. The US puts a statistical quality year of life at $129,000. Life expectancy aged 65 is 20 years. Again, reducing this by half (assuming premature deaths are spread across the age cohort), we get a ~$4 billion value. This would again be an annually-incurred cost. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_life https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_life https://data.oecd.org/healthstat/life-expectancy-at-65.htm https://data.oecd.org/healthstat/life-expectancy-at-65.htm
- clairity 6y ago
  thanks, that seems to be a reasonable analysis. i'd like to look into the disproportionate risk side of things too, but data on that seems less accessible/more scattered.
  - dredmorbius 6y ago
    Systemic risk are inherently difficult to assess. They're often rare, complex, distributed, in time, space, population, and mechanisms. All of these make both quantification and messaging much more difficult.
    - clairity 6y ago
      sure, and that's the rub. the systemic risk in this case is for a relatively small/local system compared to the state. if the systemic risk were distributed across the state, the easy answer is socializing the cost at the state level. but here, it's more localized than that (even as the boundaries might be long, since the risks tend to be on the edges). how much should be apportioned to the individuals/companies, insurance, and the government? it's similar to the discussion around flood maps in relation to assessors/appraisers, risk adjusters, fema, and insurance. those maps are at least in part designed to apportion risk and responsibility.
      - dredmorbius 6y ago
        Not sure I agree here. In recent years, wildfire has hit urban parts of Santa Barbara and surrounding communities (Goleta, Monticello, Carpenteria), downtown Ventura, Santa Rosa, both city and suburban Los Angeles and San Diego, and entire rural cities (e.g., Paradise). Urban-wilderness interfaces are major feaatures of the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, San Diego, Vacaville, and other counties and metro areas. The prospects for major urban-impinging wildfires in Solono, Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Marin, Sonoma, and Napa counties, even if generally subject to less-severe conditions (lower temps and winds, higher humidities) is high and growing. (Several of these regions have seen major fires.) Structural damage and economic would be extreme.

dredmorbius 6y ago

Among estimates I've seen are 20,000 homeless (I belive from 2017 fire season), another source gives 67,000 displaced in San Mateo and Santa Cruz counties alone, and as many as 3,000 premature deaths from smoke-induced air pollution, most to 65+ age groups. https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/20000-evacuees-displaced-by-fires-in-san-mateo-santa-cruz-counties/ar-BB18bQUA https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/20000-evacuees-... https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/article/Hidden-cost-of-wildfire-smoke-Stanford-15595754.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/article/Hid... Attaching costs to these is difficult. A chronically homeless person costs the tax payer an average of $35,578 per year. https://endhomelessness.org/resource/ending-chronic-homelessness-saves-taxpayers-money/ https://endhomelessness.org/resource/ending-chronic-homeless... Probably high-side, but a portion of the fire-displaced are likely to become so. If we assume half that cost, displacement alone is ~$340 million/yr. The US puts a statistical quality year of life at $129,000. Life expectancy aged 65 is 20 years. Again, reducing this by half (assuming premature deaths are spread across the age cohort), we get a ~$4 billion value. This would again be an annually-incurred cost. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_life https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_life https://data.oecd.org/healthstat/life-expectancy-at-65.htm https://data.oecd.org/healthstat/life-expectancy-at-65.htm

clairity 6y ago
thanks, that seems to be a reasonable analysis. i'd like to look into the disproportionate risk side of things too, but data on that seems less accessible/more scattered.
- dredmorbius 6y ago
  Systemic risk are inherently difficult to assess. They're often rare, complex, distributed, in time, space, population, and mechanisms. All of these make both quantification and messaging much more difficult.
  - clairity 6y ago
    sure, and that's the rub. the systemic risk in this case is for a relatively small/local system compared to the state. if the systemic risk were distributed across the state, the easy answer is socializing the cost at the state level. but here, it's more localized than that (even as the boundaries might be long, since the risks tend to be on the edges). how much should be apportioned to the individuals/companies, insurance, and the government? it's similar to the discussion around flood maps in relation to assessors/appraisers, risk adjusters, fema, and insurance. those maps are at least in part designed to apportion risk and responsibility.
    - dredmorbius 6y ago
      Not sure I agree here. In recent years, wildfire has hit urban parts of Santa Barbara and surrounding communities (Goleta, Monticello, Carpenteria), downtown Ventura, Santa Rosa, both city and suburban Los Angeles and San Diego, and entire rural cities (e.g., Paradise). Urban-wilderness interfaces are major feaatures of the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, San Diego, Vacaville, and other counties and metro areas. The prospects for major urban-impinging wildfires in Solono, Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Marin, Sonoma, and Napa counties, even if generally subject to less-severe conditions (lower temps and winds, higher humidities) is high and growing. (Several of these regions have seen major fires.) Structural damage and economic would be extreme.