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> what if Apple outperforms both Intel and AMD with their Apple Silicon? It wouldn't matter at all to either AMD or Intel until Apple starts supplying these ch

> what if Apple outperforms both Intel and AMD with their Apple Silicon? It wouldn't matter at all to either AMD or Intel until Apple starts supplying these chips to other OEM's. Till then, it will just be used in the walled garden of Apple products, which is the very thing that makes it very unattractive for many users.

tonyedgecombe 6y ago
I suspect it’s mostly price that makes it unattractive to users. Worrying about the walled garden is a fringe concern.
- amluto 6y ago
  This depends on the use case. For phones and consumer applications, the walled garden is often tolerable. But imagine trying to run a cloud service, a FinTech system, a factory, an ERP system, etc in the walled garden.
  - _ph_ 6y ago
    The Mac isn't a walled garden, why should servers with Apple Silicon be?
- Dahoon 6y ago
  Not as long as Windows is not a default OS.
- ajuc 6y ago
  They have almost 0 computer market share in developing markets, nobody knows how to use apple, nobody knows their stack and their programming languages, all the infrastructure is built around windows. With smartphones it's not such big a problem cause you don't do anything productive on smartphones anyway. With PC/laptops it's a big disadvantage I don't see changing in a few years just because of small performance advantages, even if the prices weren't an issue.
webmaven 6y ago
> > what if Apple outperforms both Intel and AMD with their Apple Silicon? > It wouldn't matter at all to either AMD or Intel until Apple starts supplying these chips to other OEM's. Till then, it will just be used in the walled garden of Apple products, which is the very thing that makes it very unattractive for many users. Well, there is another possible path: if Apple Silicon is seen as a PoC, someone else could decide to pursue the server market with an Apple Silicon inspired ARM-based offering. Perhaps aimed at FaaS deployments or something similar.
- wmf 6y ago
  someone else could decide to pursue the server market with an Apple Silicon inspired ARM-based offering In other words Nuvia.
- _ph_ 6y ago
  There are already ARM based servers available in AWS. The big problem is: almost no one has desktop machines, where the software development happens, with ARM. Linus once commented that ARM doesn't sell so well on the server, because developers are lacking desktop machines with that architectore. Apple Silicon could close that gap. You can develop with a Linux VM on AS, and deploy on ARM in the cloud.
  - pjmlp 6y ago
    Around the first .com wave, I used to develop on Windows (C and C++) and deploy on SPARC/PowerPC/PA-RISC servers. The only x86 servers were running a mix of NT 4.0 and Windows 2000. Apparently it worked.
    - _ph_ 6y ago
      Of course it works. Otherwise there would be no ARM on the servers. But it is second class to a setup, where the development and deployment happens on the same platform. Having good ARM machines available on the desktop will give ARM on the server a boost. As I wrote, don't take my word for it, listen to what Linus hat to say on that topic.
_ph_ 6y ago
The Mac isn't a "walled garden". MacOS is a Unix. Losing Apple as a CPU customer adds another dent into Intels revenue. On its own, it wouldn't be decisive, but in a time of sinking market share, you don't want this to happen. Also, it will be interesting how Apples market share develops, as th AS could make the Macs much more attractive. Both from the performance and price and of course, because of the iOS compatibility.
- Nullabillity 6y ago
  > The Mac isn't a "walled garden". On the software side you have Gatekeeper and SIP. On the hardware side you have T2, soldered RAM, their weird custom SSDs, and their lawsuits against hackintosh manufacturers. Yes, there are still ways around some of them, but it's pretty obvious where they want things to go.
  - _ph_ 6y ago
    Gatekeeper has been around for 10 years and every year people have predicted you couldn't install software outside of the app store. It never came by. As a development machine, it just wouldn't work.
    - userbinator 6y ago
      The frog needs to be boiled slowly. Very slowly.
      - _ph_ 6y ago
        No. For a general purpose machine, especially for developers, you need the ability to access your files freely and to run any program. If that is no longer given, all developers and most users would drop the platform. Also, it completely doesn't make sense as long as you allow virtualisation. Which Apple not only does, they even demoed this capabiltiy in the keynote.
  - sokoloff 6y ago
    Lawsuits against hackintosh manufacturers seem fair enough to me.
cwhiz 6y ago
I think that’s a short term take. Apple may be able to reduce the price of their laptops by hundreds of dollars, offer better performance, offer better battery life, offer more desirable form factors, and maintain their margins. It seems unlikely to me that PC OEMs will just stand by and take it. Windows on ARM already exists and this may be the spark that really ignites that fire.
- _ph_ 6y ago
  That is my hope too. So far ARM on the desktop/laptop lagged both because of the lack of suitable hardware and software. There are a few interesting Windows on ARM laptops around, I had been eyeing the Galacy Book S, but they lag behind as there is very few native software for them. Which is a chicken and an egg problem. As long as the number of ARM machines is low, software companies are saving money by ignoring them. And this means, the numbers will stay low. With Apple Silicon, the game changes a bit. Not only is there the prospect of the AS being really fast, as Apple is going to make a complete transition, software companies have to support AS, if they want to continue to sell to Mac users. And suddenly, any Linux user also has a great ARM platform to work on, via a VM running on the Mac. This might even have a direct impact on the Windows software offerings. So far, they could sell to Mac users running a x86-VM. This will be no longer possible. As much as Mac users contributed to Windows verndors revenue, they have to either give up the Mac market, make a native Mac application or hope that Windows on ARM becomes available in a VM on the Mac. But then, they at least need to fully support Windows on ARM.
samatman 6y ago
If, and it's a big if, Apple wanted to build "Darwin in the cloud", they could make the Big Three into the Big Four pretty quick. Those enormous piles of cash could build out a world-class service that would be attractive both to developers servicing iOS applications, and just to developers, period, a lot of whom use Macs. That would indirectly take a chunk out of Intel's server dominance, and might get the other players thinking about whether Intel is the best platform for them to stick with as well.

tonyedgecombe 6y ago

I suspect it’s mostly price that makes it unattractive to users. Worrying about the walled garden is a fringe concern.

amluto 6y ago
This depends on the use case. For phones and consumer applications, the walled garden is often tolerable. But imagine trying to run a cloud service, a FinTech system, a factory, an ERP system, etc in the walled garden.
- _ph_ 6y ago
  The Mac isn't a walled garden, why should servers with Apple Silicon be?
Dahoon 6y ago
Not as long as Windows is not a default OS.
ajuc 6y ago
They have almost 0 computer market share in developing markets, nobody knows how to use apple, nobody knows their stack and their programming languages, all the infrastructure is built around windows. With smartphones it's not such big a problem cause you don't do anything productive on smartphones anyway. With PC/laptops it's a big disadvantage I don't see changing in a few years just because of small performance advantages, even if the prices weren't an issue.

webmaven 6y ago

> > what if Apple outperforms both Intel and AMD with their Apple Silicon? > It wouldn't matter at all to either AMD or Intel until Apple starts supplying these chips to other OEM's. Till then, it will just be used in the walled garden of Apple products, which is the very thing that makes it very unattractive for many users. Well, there is another possible path: if Apple Silicon is seen as a PoC, someone else could decide to pursue the server market with an Apple Silicon inspired ARM-based offering. Perhaps aimed at FaaS deployments or something similar.

wmf 6y ago
someone else could decide to pursue the server market with an Apple Silicon inspired ARM-based offering In other words Nuvia.
_ph_ 6y ago
There are already ARM based servers available in AWS. The big problem is: almost no one has desktop machines, where the software development happens, with ARM. Linus once commented that ARM doesn't sell so well on the server, because developers are lacking desktop machines with that architectore. Apple Silicon could close that gap. You can develop with a Linux VM on AS, and deploy on ARM in the cloud.
- pjmlp 6y ago
  Around the first .com wave, I used to develop on Windows (C and C++) and deploy on SPARC/PowerPC/PA-RISC servers. The only x86 servers were running a mix of NT 4.0 and Windows 2000. Apparently it worked.
  - _ph_ 6y ago
    Of course it works. Otherwise there would be no ARM on the servers. But it is second class to a setup, where the development and deployment happens on the same platform. Having good ARM machines available on the desktop will give ARM on the server a boost. As I wrote, don't take my word for it, listen to what Linus hat to say on that topic.

_ph_ 6y ago

The Mac isn't a "walled garden". MacOS is a Unix. Losing Apple as a CPU customer adds another dent into Intels revenue. On its own, it wouldn't be decisive, but in a time of sinking market share, you don't want this to happen. Also, it will be interesting how Apples market share develops, as th AS could make the Macs much more attractive. Both from the performance and price and of course, because of the iOS compatibility.

Nullabillity 6y ago
> The Mac isn't a "walled garden". On the software side you have Gatekeeper and SIP. On the hardware side you have T2, soldered RAM, their weird custom SSDs, and their lawsuits against hackintosh manufacturers. Yes, there are still ways around some of them, but it's pretty obvious where they want things to go.
- _ph_ 6y ago
  Gatekeeper has been around for 10 years and every year people have predicted you couldn't install software outside of the app store. It never came by. As a development machine, it just wouldn't work.
  - userbinator 6y ago
    The frog needs to be boiled slowly. Very slowly.
    - _ph_ 6y ago
      No. For a general purpose machine, especially for developers, you need the ability to access your files freely and to run any program. If that is no longer given, all developers and most users would drop the platform. Also, it completely doesn't make sense as long as you allow virtualisation. Which Apple not only does, they even demoed this capabiltiy in the keynote.
- sokoloff 6y ago
  Lawsuits against hackintosh manufacturers seem fair enough to me.

cwhiz 6y ago

I think that’s a short term take. Apple may be able to reduce the price of their laptops by hundreds of dollars, offer better performance, offer better battery life, offer more desirable form factors, and maintain their margins. It seems unlikely to me that PC OEMs will just stand by and take it. Windows on ARM already exists and this may be the spark that really ignites that fire.

_ph_ 6y ago
That is my hope too. So far ARM on the desktop/laptop lagged both because of the lack of suitable hardware and software. There are a few interesting Windows on ARM laptops around, I had been eyeing the Galacy Book S, but they lag behind as there is very few native software for them. Which is a chicken and an egg problem. As long as the number of ARM machines is low, software companies are saving money by ignoring them. And this means, the numbers will stay low. With Apple Silicon, the game changes a bit. Not only is there the prospect of the AS being really fast, as Apple is going to make a complete transition, software companies have to support AS, if they want to continue to sell to Mac users. And suddenly, any Linux user also has a great ARM platform to work on, via a VM running on the Mac. This might even have a direct impact on the Windows software offerings. So far, they could sell to Mac users running a x86-VM. This will be no longer possible. As much as Mac users contributed to Windows verndors revenue, they have to either give up the Mac market, make a native Mac application or hope that Windows on ARM becomes available in a VM on the Mac. But then, they at least need to fully support Windows on ARM.

samatman 6y ago

If, and it's a big if, Apple wanted to build "Darwin in the cloud", they could make the Big Three into the Big Four pretty quick. Those enormous piles of cash could build out a world-class service that would be attractive both to developers servicing iOS applications, and just to developers, period, a lot of whom use Macs. That would indirectly take a chunk out of Intel's server dominance, and might get the other players thinking about whether Intel is the best platform for them to stick with as well.