3 ms·

It's amazing that it can get this messy. A president-elect dying in 4 months is not that unlikely: 65+ has a probability of dying about 1.5%/year [1], so 0.5% t

by yread 6y ago

It's amazing that it can get this messy. A president-elect dying in 4 months is not that unlikely: 65+ has a probability of dying about 1.5%/year [1], so 0.5% that they die between November and January. For a 74 year old it's even 3.6% and 1.2% respectively, for a 77 year old 4.5% and 1.5% [2]. And that's not even considering that there is a lot more stress in that time. [1] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/47/Excerpt_from_CDC_2003_Table_1.pdf https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/47/Excerpt_... [2] https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/United-States-life-tables%2C-1998.-Anderson/786695111e5cf0ea6153bf4c28a43699bdc1edc2/figure/2 https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/United-States-life-tab...

rich_sasha 6y ago
Interesting! And yes, really puts the "no time like right now" into perspective. Though I suppose there is some selection bias too: if you can run for presidency at 74/77 etc. you must be fitter than the average person your age; be it because of better health, better genes, or easier life hitherto, or something else still. So your odds of making it are probably better too. Most people that age I know wouldn't be able to keep up with the electoral calendar pace.
- AkshatM 6y ago
  When you use the term "fit", I think you are equating stamina with immune response. Being able to withstand a grueling schedule has nothing to do with how well your immune system will rally to infection, so I don't think it's a strong indicator of anything. Further, this assessment also assumes the 74/77 year olds who died as a consequence of infection were all of average health, rather than randomly sampled across the health spectrum (which us a fairer assumption). I don't think there's any basis to conclude that they were average health. We do know Trump has some complicating conditions such as mild obesity and unconfirmed heart disease: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/10/02/health/trump-melania-coronavirus-risk-factors-bn/index.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/10/02/heal... If anything, these elevate his risk.
  - srtjstjsj 6y ago
    Surely someone with grueling stamina has shown an ability to withstand infection that would have interrupted that stamina.
    - schwartzworld 6y ago
      Or just gotten lucky
    - AkshatM 6y ago
      What evidence is there to suggest they had an infection during their period of grueling stamina?
tinus_hn 6y ago
It’s not like Trump is as healthy as an average 65+ person.
- srtjstjsj 6y ago
  Are you sure? What is the average?

by yread 6y ago

rich_sasha 6y ago

Interesting! And yes, really puts the "no time like right now" into perspective. Though I suppose there is some selection bias too: if you can run for presidency at 74/77 etc. you must be fitter than the average person your age; be it because of better health, better genes, or easier life hitherto, or something else still. So your odds of making it are probably better too. Most people that age I know wouldn't be able to keep up with the electoral calendar pace.

AkshatM 6y ago
When you use the term "fit", I think you are equating stamina with immune response. Being able to withstand a grueling schedule has nothing to do with how well your immune system will rally to infection, so I don't think it's a strong indicator of anything. Further, this assessment also assumes the 74/77 year olds who died as a consequence of infection were all of average health, rather than randomly sampled across the health spectrum (which us a fairer assumption). I don't think there's any basis to conclude that they were average health. We do know Trump has some complicating conditions such as mild obesity and unconfirmed heart disease: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/10/02/health/trump-melania-coronavirus-risk-factors-bn/index.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/10/02/heal... If anything, these elevate his risk.
- srtjstjsj 6y ago
  Surely someone with grueling stamina has shown an ability to withstand infection that would have interrupted that stamina.
  - schwartzworld 6y ago
    Or just gotten lucky
  - AkshatM 6y ago
    What evidence is there to suggest they had an infection during their period of grueling stamina?

tinus_hn 6y ago

It’s not like Trump is as healthy as an average 65+ person.

srtjstjsj 6y ago
Are you sure? What is the average?