Here's another way to look at it. Assume I risk massive downside if Candidate A gets elected, or if Bill B passes. I would like to buy "insurance" against these

Here's another way to look at it. Assume I risk massive downside if Candidate A gets elected, or if Bill B passes. I would like to buy "insurance" against these events occurring: I want to get a financial upside to cover my anticipated loss. So I'd put a bet on/option Candidate A winning, or on Bill B passing. And then if Candidate A wins, I get a payout and use it to finance my moving abroad.