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It seems to use reputation instead, which might do decently with those who take it seriously. For example, the Good Judgement Project forecasting competition us
by chillacy 6y ago
It seems to use reputation instead, which might do decently with those who take it seriously. For example, the Good Judgement Project forecasting competition uses points and scores to incentivize: https://www.gjopen.com/faq https://www.gjopen.com/faq
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Judgment_Project https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Judgment_Project
> Predictions are scored using Brier scores.[6] The top forecasters in GJP are "reportedly 30% better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information
- nl 6y agoThis is true, but GJP explicitly isn't a prediction market. Instead it's a specific way to make predictions. You can't bet more of your points in GJP if you are really sure about an answer, hence it isn't a prediction market.
- chillacy 6y agoYea it’s a forecasting competition but it does seem related in the way that if you were to take things seriously, step one would be to estimate the odds, step two is to buy the position that’s underpriced.