4 ms·

So this is fortune teller gambling? Like people are trading and betting on people's predictions? Facebook's version of betting on horseraces and other sporting

So this is fortune teller gambling? Like people are trading and betting on people's predictions? Facebook's version of betting on horseraces and other sporting events? Am I wrong? I'm not sure exactly what this is other than you're trading in people's predictions. Which pretty much sounds like when you go down to a bar and place bets on a boxing match or something....except with everything and it's run by facebook. Like this sounds like a marketplace for people to put odds on everything then other people come place bets and it's all run by facebook. Did I miss something here or interpret this wrong?? This seems ridiculous...it should be called gambling on global affairs by facebook..

tantalor 6y ago
Prediction markets are nothing new. A popular one is PredictIt: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PredictIt https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PredictIt
- grawprog 6y ago
  Yeah I know...I gave examples of some in my comment...I know what a prediction market is... But in the end...call it what you want...it's gambling..
  - tantalor 6y ago
    Sure it's gambling but more like poker than roulette. A skilled player can make tons of money by exploiting mispriced contracts.
    - grawprog 6y ago
      Nothing wrong with gambling per se...something seems wrong with facebook running what is essentially a global gambling system to me though... >skilled player can make tons of money by exploiting mispriced contracts Except, unlike in most poker hands, those have far reaching global consequences
      - hogFeast 6y ago
        This isn't gambling, there is no money involved. But it is definitely true that this is different from betting generally: if I bet on a game, my bet doesn't change the outcome. In any social context, the probability on these markets (if it did take off) would affect behaviour.
  - tshaddox 6y ago
    When is something investing rather than gambling?
AYBABTME 6y ago
Here's another way to look at it. Assume I risk massive downside if Candidate A gets elected, or if Bill B passes. I would like to buy "insurance" against these events occurring: I want to get a financial upside to cover my anticipated loss. So I'd put a bet on/option Candidate A winning, or on Bill B passing. And then if Candidate A wins, I get a payout and use it to finance my moving abroad.

tantalor 6y ago

Prediction markets are nothing new. A popular one is PredictIt: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PredictIt https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PredictIt

grawprog 6y ago
Yeah I know...I gave examples of some in my comment...I know what a prediction market is... But in the end...call it what you want...it's gambling..
- tantalor 6y ago
  Sure it's gambling but more like poker than roulette. A skilled player can make tons of money by exploiting mispriced contracts.
  - grawprog 6y ago
    Nothing wrong with gambling per se...something seems wrong with facebook running what is essentially a global gambling system to me though... >skilled player can make tons of money by exploiting mispriced contracts Except, unlike in most poker hands, those have far reaching global consequences
    - hogFeast 6y ago
      This isn't gambling, there is no money involved. But it is definitely true that this is different from betting generally: if I bet on a game, my bet doesn't change the outcome. In any social context, the probability on these markets (if it did take off) would affect behaviour.
- tshaddox 6y ago
  When is something investing rather than gambling?

AYBABTME 6y ago

Here's another way to look at it. Assume I risk massive downside if Candidate A gets elected, or if Bill B passes. I would like to buy "insurance" against these events occurring: I want to get a financial upside to cover my anticipated loss. So I'd put a bet on/option Candidate A winning, or on Bill B passing. And then if Candidate A wins, I get a payout and use it to finance my moving abroad.