4 ms·

People change, especially after being punished for the mistake they made for 13 years. Chances are she would be less likely to engage in violence than the peopl

People change, especially after being punished for the mistake they made for 13 years. Chances are she would be less likely to engage in violence than the people you currently sit next to, because she has a personal understanding of the harsh punishment it would involve. Edit: The downvotes that this comment is currently receiving actually illustrate the problems outlined in this thread. If you disagree with the idea that people can change, you will never hire someone with a criminal record, and you will perpetuate the problem. The unemployment rate among felons in the US less than 2 years after release is 31.6% [1]. The unemployment rate at the peak of the Great Depression was 24.9% [2]. It is always the Great Depression for the felon population, because of the incorrect belief that people can’t change. Among any population with unemployment this high, there will be a drastically higher crime rate. [1] https://www.esrcheck.com/wordpress/2018/07/16/report-finds-one-four-formerly-incarcerated-ex-offenders-unemployed/ https://www.esrcheck.com/wordpress/2018/07/16/report-finds-o... [2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/05/19/3-reasons-unemployment-is-already-at-great-depression-levels/#415dc4f9413f https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/05/19/3-reasons...

Meph504 6y ago
Recidivism statistics would disagree with this statement, nearly have of all violent offenders when released will commit another violent crime. https://www.michigan.gov/documents/corrections/Pew_Report_State_of_Recidivism_350337_7.pdf https://www.michigan.gov/documents/corrections/Pew_Report_St...
- downandout 6y ago
  First, you did not point out the specific page where it says that “nearly all” violent offenders will commit another violent crime. This is a 42 page report. Second, I could not find any statistic in that report that comes even remotely close to describing that “most” violent offenders will commit another violent crime. Some states have recidivism rates approaching 50% (for ALL offenders, violent and nonviolent) but those numbers include technical parole violations and new non-violent crime. Please indicate the page where the data supports your statement.
  - Meph504 6y ago
    sorry, it's a typo the "nearly have" was supposed to be " nearly half." I don't believe even with the typo someone would likely see "nearly all." If you want a more summarized article you can find one here https://www.ussc.gov/research/research-reports/recidivism-among-federal-violent-offenders https://www.ussc.gov/research/research-reports/recidivism-am... I originally posted the pew one as I feel the chance of biased against offenders is lower from their research, but this article does a better job of summarizing, as well as offering their full report. After looking over the data again, it seems that nearly half will commit another crime but only 28.4% will be a violent one. with these adjusted numbers, it still is inaccurate to say "...Chances are she would be less likely to engage in violence than the people you currently sit next to,..."
    - downandout 6y ago
      It would be interesting to see what the recidivism data on longer sentences is. There is a big difference between someone that served a 90 day sentence for something, then goes and commits a serious crime, and someone that serves 13 years for something. There is a much more significant lesson in the 13 years. Also, crime rates decrease among populations as they age. The mere fact that people who serve longer sentences are older when they get out would have a further push down on crime rates among that population.
      - Meph504 6y ago
        You don't get 90 days for a felony, something that short is usually served in local lockup (city/County) and aren't typically included in these sort of stats. But there is data on people doing under 5 years, and if you compared to that you would likely be right, but don't have the data to prove it.
        downandout 6y ago
        Many, many people get 90, 60, 30 days or even probation for felonies as part of a plea agreement. Felony simply means that the maximum sentence is over 1 year. There is even a term for it..”felony probation”.

Meph504 6y ago

Recidivism statistics would disagree with this statement, nearly have of all violent offenders when released will commit another violent crime. https://www.michigan.gov/documents/corrections/Pew_Report_State_of_Recidivism_350337_7.pdf https://www.michigan.gov/documents/corrections/Pew_Report_St...

downandout 6y ago
First, you did not point out the specific page where it says that “nearly all” violent offenders will commit another violent crime. This is a 42 page report. Second, I could not find any statistic in that report that comes even remotely close to describing that “most” violent offenders will commit another violent crime. Some states have recidivism rates approaching 50% (for ALL offenders, violent and nonviolent) but those numbers include technical parole violations and new non-violent crime. Please indicate the page where the data supports your statement.
- Meph504 6y ago
  sorry, it's a typo the "nearly have" was supposed to be " nearly half." I don't believe even with the typo someone would likely see "nearly all." If you want a more summarized article you can find one here https://www.ussc.gov/research/research-reports/recidivism-among-federal-violent-offenders https://www.ussc.gov/research/research-reports/recidivism-am... I originally posted the pew one as I feel the chance of biased against offenders is lower from their research, but this article does a better job of summarizing, as well as offering their full report. After looking over the data again, it seems that nearly half will commit another crime but only 28.4% will be a violent one. with these adjusted numbers, it still is inaccurate to say "...Chances are she would be less likely to engage in violence than the people you currently sit next to,..."
  - downandout 6y ago
    It would be interesting to see what the recidivism data on longer sentences is. There is a big difference between someone that served a 90 day sentence for something, then goes and commits a serious crime, and someone that serves 13 years for something. There is a much more significant lesson in the 13 years. Also, crime rates decrease among populations as they age. The mere fact that people who serve longer sentences are older when they get out would have a further push down on crime rates among that population.
    - Meph504 6y ago
      You don't get 90 days for a felony, something that short is usually served in local lockup (city/County) and aren't typically included in these sort of stats. But there is data on people doing under 5 years, and if you compared to that you would likely be right, but don't have the data to prove it.
      - downandout 6y ago
        Many, many people get 90, 60, 30 days or even probation for felonies as part of a plea agreement. Felony simply means that the maximum sentence is over 1 year. There is even a term for it..”felony probation”.