10 ms·

It's 2020, my first instinct was to look at the sky to try and spot the impending supernova.

by mckirk 6y ago

mtgx 6y ago
2020: Stellar Explosion for president!
1_player 6y ago
How good is our supernova detection technology? Would we be able to predict one with reasonable precision [1] before it wipes off the face of the Earth, or would we fry with gamma rays before we knew what was going on? 1: "by this time next year we'll all be dead with 99% certainty"
- spaetzleesser 6y ago
  I think right now “reasonable precision” means “within the next few ten thousand years”.
  - BurningFrog 6y ago
    After Betelgeuze blows, we should know more about what to look for.
    - spaetzleesser 6y ago
      I think that’s the real problem. We have no first hand observations of the processes around a supernova before it blows up. It may take a very long time until we will get these observations.
- zaarn 6y ago
  Betelgeuse, the only star that I know of within the range to produce a supernova dangerous to us, has scientists looking at it closely. Mostly because it's a closeby giant and those are interesting. I think most estimates range between 40'000 and 140'000 years until core hydrogen is exhausted. It's ejecta are unlikely to reach earth or cause harm (either radiation or otherwise). So while it lasts, you can enjoy reading a book under the light of a dying star at night for a few days. Eta Carinae is another candidate but it's too far away and unlikely to outshine Venus significantly. It's also not due for some due. There is also the possibility it'll just collapse into a black hole with no fanfare or extra light emission, it'll just be gone one day. Supernovae usually come from very bright stars, those are easily detectable and visible. From what I remember, there aren't any candidates even close to us that are about to expire minus Betelgeuse, which isn't aiming it's poles at us and won't do much harm. I would like to add that in the even we could predict that a supernova is about to wipe us out, there isn't anything we could do. Any nearby object we could use as shelter, such as Venus, Mars, the Jupiter Moons etc would likely be just as affected if not more (Jupiter's magnetic field will likely make a Supernova hit more deadly IMO). It would be over within the span of a few days and nobody will survive. Just lean back and enjoy the show, tbh.
  - Aperocky 6y ago
    Core hydrogen is already gone in Betelgeuse case. It's a matter of when it gets to Fe56 and exceed Chandrasakhar limit
  - TaupeRanger 6y ago
    I wonder if there are any sci-fi books with a doomed planet along these lines. Pick up 10 years before the planet gets destroyed. People of the past lived with the futility of trying to escape, doing almost nothing, and now people are desperate and taking insane scientific risks to try to save the species.
    - paul_f 6y ago
      Neal Stephenson's Seveneves is a great read kinda along these lines.
      - abecedarius 6y ago
        Seconded. There's a trilogy starting with The Last Policeman with a similar scenario: kilometer-scale asteroid projected to hit in about a year. To a first approximation everyone just says "Well, fuck, guess we're going to die." Thinking about the ways that seemed unrealistic and how I thought it would go instead, Seveneves turned out a lot more like it (though with exciting-story elements injected, and also in Seveneves they're starting from maybe a decade ahead of us in space tech). (The Last Policeman is still interesting in other ways.) Egan's Diaspora is another good match, with an astrophysical cataclysm instead of a merely planetary one. It happens to a much more advanced future society, though.
      - qubex 6y ago
        I loved Seveneves but I disagree that it provides an indication of how one would face this kind of emergency. For sure one would not venture into space if one fears an onslaught of harsh gamma-ray radiation. It’s an entirely different kind of disaster. (SPOILER: Admittedly, the underground and underwater subplots might be more applicable but... they’re side-shows at best.)
    - 6y ago
- freehunter 6y ago
  Ultimately I'm not sure it matters if we detect a supernova that will kill us within a year. That's not enough time to do anything about it, but enough time for worldwide panic and massive suffering before we all die anyway. We'd really need to know at least 10-20 years out. Enough time to rally the world to find a solution but not enough time that it ceases to be a concern (like thousands of years).
  - jaynetics 6y ago
    That's an interesting thought. Severe consequences of climate change can be expected within decades, but apparently that is still to far off and hard to imagine for many people, and hard to sell for politicians. This leaves me wondering if people would accept decades of worsening quality of life (moving into caves etc.) even if the alternative was certain death by gamma rays.
    - tshaddox 6y ago
      I think the climate change thing has little to do with how far off it is. It's just that the people who stand to benefit from not mitigating climate change are both powerful politically and wealthy enough that the effects, even if they happened much sooner than predicted, wouldn't likely effect them. Sure, they may lose one of their homes on the coastline. The mass migration away from coastlines will be devastating to humanity, but not to those people or their children. Heck, even worst case scenarios like massive social unrest or resource wars aren't likely to effect these people. Their kids certainly won't be going off to war! In other words, it's not a problem of being able to imagine the effects. I suspect the powerful people resisting climate change mitigation can imagine the effects, they just know those effects won't touch them.
- qubex 6y ago
  I presume that if the astronomers did spot an imminent supernova that threatens to extinguish life on earth, we’d collectively respond by lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy...
waffle_ss 6y ago
Wild that this throwaway “haha 2020 amirite?” comment got at least 22 karma. HN comment SnR has really nosedived in the past year (yeah I know, I’m not supposed to say anything because guidelines, but it’s true).

It's 2020, my first instinct was to look at the sky to try and spot the impending supernova.

by mckirk 6y ago

It's 2020, my first instinct was to look at the sky to try and spot the impending supernova.

mtgx 6y ago

2020: Stellar Explosion for president!

1_player 6y ago

How good is our supernova detection technology? Would we be able to predict one with reasonable precision [1] before it wipes off the face of the Earth, or would we fry with gamma rays before we knew what was going on? 1: "by this time next year we'll all be dead with 99% certainty"

spaetzleesser 6y ago
I think right now “reasonable precision” means “within the next few ten thousand years”.
- BurningFrog 6y ago
  After Betelgeuze blows, we should know more about what to look for.
  - spaetzleesser 6y ago
    I think that’s the real problem. We have no first hand observations of the processes around a supernova before it blows up. It may take a very long time until we will get these observations.
zaarn 6y ago
Betelgeuse, the only star that I know of within the range to produce a supernova dangerous to us, has scientists looking at it closely. Mostly because it's a closeby giant and those are interesting. I think most estimates range between 40'000 and 140'000 years until core hydrogen is exhausted. It's ejecta are unlikely to reach earth or cause harm (either radiation or otherwise). So while it lasts, you can enjoy reading a book under the light of a dying star at night for a few days. Eta Carinae is another candidate but it's too far away and unlikely to outshine Venus significantly. It's also not due for some due. There is also the possibility it'll just collapse into a black hole with no fanfare or extra light emission, it'll just be gone one day. Supernovae usually come from very bright stars, those are easily detectable and visible. From what I remember, there aren't any candidates even close to us that are about to expire minus Betelgeuse, which isn't aiming it's poles at us and won't do much harm. I would like to add that in the even we could predict that a supernova is about to wipe us out, there isn't anything we could do. Any nearby object we could use as shelter, such as Venus, Mars, the Jupiter Moons etc would likely be just as affected if not more (Jupiter's magnetic field will likely make a Supernova hit more deadly IMO). It would be over within the span of a few days and nobody will survive. Just lean back and enjoy the show, tbh.
- Aperocky 6y ago
  Core hydrogen is already gone in Betelgeuse case. It's a matter of when it gets to Fe56 and exceed Chandrasakhar limit
- TaupeRanger 6y ago
  I wonder if there are any sci-fi books with a doomed planet along these lines. Pick up 10 years before the planet gets destroyed. People of the past lived with the futility of trying to escape, doing almost nothing, and now people are desperate and taking insane scientific risks to try to save the species.
  - paul_f 6y ago
    Neal Stephenson's Seveneves is a great read kinda along these lines.
    - abecedarius 6y ago
      Seconded. There's a trilogy starting with The Last Policeman with a similar scenario: kilometer-scale asteroid projected to hit in about a year. To a first approximation everyone just says "Well, fuck, guess we're going to die." Thinking about the ways that seemed unrealistic and how I thought it would go instead, Seveneves turned out a lot more like it (though with exciting-story elements injected, and also in Seveneves they're starting from maybe a decade ahead of us in space tech). (The Last Policeman is still interesting in other ways.) Egan's Diaspora is another good match, with an astrophysical cataclysm instead of a merely planetary one. It happens to a much more advanced future society, though.
    - qubex 6y ago
      I loved Seveneves but I disagree that it provides an indication of how one would face this kind of emergency. For sure one would not venture into space if one fears an onslaught of harsh gamma-ray radiation. It’s an entirely different kind of disaster. (SPOILER: Admittedly, the underground and underwater subplots might be more applicable but... they’re side-shows at best.)
  - 6y ago
freehunter 6y ago
Ultimately I'm not sure it matters if we detect a supernova that will kill us within a year. That's not enough time to do anything about it, but enough time for worldwide panic and massive suffering before we all die anyway. We'd really need to know at least 10-20 years out. Enough time to rally the world to find a solution but not enough time that it ceases to be a concern (like thousands of years).
- jaynetics 6y ago
  That's an interesting thought. Severe consequences of climate change can be expected within decades, but apparently that is still to far off and hard to imagine for many people, and hard to sell for politicians. This leaves me wondering if people would accept decades of worsening quality of life (moving into caves etc.) even if the alternative was certain death by gamma rays.
  - tshaddox 6y ago
    I think the climate change thing has little to do with how far off it is. It's just that the people who stand to benefit from not mitigating climate change are both powerful politically and wealthy enough that the effects, even if they happened much sooner than predicted, wouldn't likely effect them. Sure, they may lose one of their homes on the coastline. The mass migration away from coastlines will be devastating to humanity, but not to those people or their children. Heck, even worst case scenarios like massive social unrest or resource wars aren't likely to effect these people. Their kids certainly won't be going off to war! In other words, it's not a problem of being able to imagine the effects. I suspect the powerful people resisting climate change mitigation can imagine the effects, they just know those effects won't touch them.
qubex 6y ago
I presume that if the astronomers did spot an imminent supernova that threatens to extinguish life on earth, we’d collectively respond by lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy...

waffle_ss 6y ago

Wild that this throwaway “haha 2020 amirite?” comment got at least 22 karma. HN comment SnR has really nosedived in the past year (yeah I know, I’m not supposed to say anything because guidelines, but it’s true).