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THANK YOU so much for this post with sources! You're saying exactly the reason I haven't been concerned about the virus since day one. Early reports truly wer

THANK YOU so much for this post with sources! You're saying exactly the reason I haven't been concerned about the virus since day one. Early reports truly weren't that earth shattering when one looked at the numbers. I truly encourage everyone reading the parent's post spread this information.

jariel 6y ago
"Early reports truly weren't that earth shattering when one looked at the numbers." I don't understand how someone can say this. COVID has a reasonably high CFR/IFR - you see the data there. Notably, as well, the R0 is very high, it transmits very easily. There have been 200 000 deaths in a few short months and without aggressive suppression it would easily be in the millions. In what world do 'millions of dead Americans and and out of control pandemic' not seem 'earth shattering' when it would be easily the worst disaster in American history (if it isn't already)? 'When one looks at the numbers', especially the totality of 'the figures' such as R0, % serious cases, lingering risk factors (and they are not new to me, these are figures I had assumed most HN readers would be somewhat familiar with) ... it's very bad.
- deleted 6y ago
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- rStar 6y ago
  sars-cov-19 has shattered my expectations for the ability of hn commenters to assess risk and model threats. it makes me wonder if i’m not half a psychopath for only caring about the quality of the information i have access to and the correctness of my conclusions which I then put into practice with a view towards my own personal good health going forward, as well as the health of my partner. i’m thankful every day that I don’t have kids.
  - jariel 6y ago
    "i’m thankful every day that I don’t have kids." Wow, it's not that bad. Our clumsy leaders are 'mostly right', and whether you're in Nigeria, New York or New Zealand ... we're going to make it through this. This pandemic, left unchecked - would kill a lot of people, but we've made a lot of changes, it's going to be ok. It's worth considering that 'detailed information' is not something we're going to communicate to the public, that's too complicated - and - that our systems are not designed for this level of control. Truly well organized authoritarian states probably have a big advantage right now.
    - rStar 6y ago
      I’ve barely been able to keep my dog from going nuts with the quarantine + the California smoke we’ve had to deal with for months now. That and many other reasons. I don’t begrudge anyone their family decisions, but my partner and I definitely made the right one for our situation.

jariel 6y ago

"Early reports truly weren't that earth shattering when one looked at the numbers." I don't understand how someone can say this. COVID has a reasonably high CFR/IFR - you see the data there. Notably, as well, the R0 is very high, it transmits very easily. There have been 200 000 deaths in a few short months and without aggressive suppression it would easily be in the millions. In what world do 'millions of dead Americans and and out of control pandemic' not seem 'earth shattering' when it would be easily the worst disaster in American history (if it isn't already)? 'When one looks at the numbers', especially the totality of 'the figures' such as R0, % serious cases, lingering risk factors (and they are not new to me, these are figures I had assumed most HN readers would be somewhat familiar with) ... it's very bad.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
rStar 6y ago
sars-cov-19 has shattered my expectations for the ability of hn commenters to assess risk and model threats. it makes me wonder if i’m not half a psychopath for only caring about the quality of the information i have access to and the correctness of my conclusions which I then put into practice with a view towards my own personal good health going forward, as well as the health of my partner. i’m thankful every day that I don’t have kids.
- jariel 6y ago
  "i’m thankful every day that I don’t have kids." Wow, it's not that bad. Our clumsy leaders are 'mostly right', and whether you're in Nigeria, New York or New Zealand ... we're going to make it through this. This pandemic, left unchecked - would kill a lot of people, but we've made a lot of changes, it's going to be ok. It's worth considering that 'detailed information' is not something we're going to communicate to the public, that's too complicated - and - that our systems are not designed for this level of control. Truly well organized authoritarian states probably have a big advantage right now.
  - rStar 6y ago
    I’ve barely been able to keep my dog from going nuts with the quarantine + the California smoke we’ve had to deal with for months now. That and many other reasons. I don’t begrudge anyone their family decisions, but my partner and I definitely made the right one for our situation.