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> That’s ~$800/Gbit at 20Gbit/satellite and 30,000 satellites. This is pretty optimistic because the shells at different altitudes have overlapping beams and c
by matmatmatmat 6y ago
> That’s ~$800/Gbit at 20Gbit/satellite and 30,000 satellites.
This is pretty optimistic because the shells at different altitudes have overlapping beams and can not all use the same spectrum at the same time (OK, technically, two satellites can share the same spectrum if they use different polarizations, but, anyway, SL plans to have 3 orbital shells according to WP.) LEO bandwidth scales sublinearly with the number of satellites because of this. Also, this doesn't take into account inefficiency due to timing and coordination between satellites, nor the fact that 70% of the total bandwidth is over water and even the bandwidth over land is mostly not over population centers. The actual cost per bit is estimated to be about 2.5x-10x higher (see https://twitter.com/Megaconstellati/status/1310386966991704065/photo/1 https://twitter.com/Megaconstellati/status/13103869669917040...).
> Starship will carry 240 satellites at a $2 million launch cost.
I think the operative word here is "will". In 2019, SX charged around $2700/kg to launch (not sure to what altitude, but let's take that figure, if you will.) A SL satellite is around 260 kg. If I round the numbers down to $2500/kg and 250 kg/satellite, I get $37.5 MM to launch 60 at a time. Suppose Starship can overcome the laws of physics and aerodynamics and launch 240 satellites with the same amount of fuel, so the cost drops by 75%. That's still roundabout $9.3 MM/launch, or, around $1 B in launch costs every five years.
Nevertheless, as you pointed out, that's not much compared to the cost of the satellites themselves. My understanding is that $250k/satellite would be very good, even at scale, but let's take that number. That brings the cost of making and launching the constellation to around $8.5 B / 5 years.
But, that's just the satellites. You need an entire ground segment to make the whole thing work. As a rough estimate, say that's another $8.5 B, but it'll last twice as long, so, $4.25 B / 5 years. OK, now we're at around $2.5 B / year just for the machinery, not including the CPE, landing rights, or personnel to keep things humming.
> If you do the math, a fully operational Starlink will print vast sums of money...
I think that's the big question everyone wants the answer to: Who will pay for this? SL will cost around $2.5 B / year in just the ground segment and the space segment. At $100/month, SL needs a bit over 2 MM customers just to cover the cost of equipment. But those 2 MM customers are not spread out evenly around the Earth, where all of the bandwidth is.
If you have any insight as to who will pay for this, I'd genuinely like to know because I'd be happy to buy into the SL IPO and retire early.
- zaroth 6y agoI think Elon has said that the constellation is viable (consistent uptime at reduced density) with 1,000 satellites. So to start they need not 2 million but perhaps 100,000 customers to sign up. Then they can grow the constellation concurrently with the customer base. 2 million customers for high speed / low latency internet for $100 / month seems like a very small ask. SpaceX projections are that they can win 3-4% of US households, or ~3.6 million households in the US. IMO I would expect the US would be their smallest market worldwide.