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I really don't like how all the media seems to be focused on case counts, they started rising significantly a couple of weeks ago in Ontario, and yet hospitaliz

I really don't like how all the media seems to be focused on case counts, they started rising significantly a couple of weeks ago in Ontario, and yet hospitalization are still only ~15% what they were at the peak. Hospitalizations are definitely going up, and probably will continue to do so, but I see headlines talking about how we are breaking the record number of cases, without acknowledging that comparing case counts between now and a few months ago is useless. I've been largely supportive of Ontario's lockdowns so far, lets not overreact just because our testing capacity has increased. And whatever happened to flattening the curve to ensure hospitalizations stay below capacity? I still haven't heard what the new plan is, obviously in many places we are locking down much longer than is required to just keep hospitals below capacity.

wolco2 6y ago
The hospitalization occurs later in the chain. This time period could be compared with February. In a month hopitalizations will be up. The case count is very misleading. The maximum number of new cases is limited by the maximum number of tests processed. Current figure is 700/cases 40,000 tests. The only way to increase the 700 cases is to increase maximum tests processed daily or pick more likely positive people to admin the test to. There could be 100,000 getting sick each day but the case count will only reflect a shadow of that information.
- xyzzy_plugh 6y ago
  Right, and just because hospitalizations are 15% what they were at peak, doesn't mean that the case count at peak was correct -- there were likely many more unconfirmed cases at peak, as testing was not yet widely available.
- spfzero 6y ago
  What’s happening now might be that more and more people are getting tested, not because they had serious symptoms, but because they need to show a positive test for some travel or other requirement, of they are just being careful because they have older family members etc. So there would appear to be more cases, even if there were in reality fewer people getting seriously sick from Covid.
- jariel 6y ago
  The OP has a point though. The hospitalization rates generally lag about 2 weeks and they are not going up very much. Province of BC has a lot of very detailed data on who gets it for what reason (they contact trace everything) and it's definitely younger people getting it right now. Google 'Dr. Bonnie Henry'. I think the media is purposefully underreporting the hospitalizations for the national interest and it's probably a good thing. The 'Freedom / Liberty' crowd hates to hear this kind of stuff, but the reality is, people are not very smart, even educated people can be easily misinformed and make bad decisions, which is why in a crisis we need constant behavioural reinforcement. It's been 2 generations since the Western world has had a crisis in which everyone has had to participate and 'play their role' so it's almost out of living memory, but I suggest this is normal. Smart people can read more and use the Internet for more detailed information.
- lbeltrame 6y ago
  It is actually hard even to make sense out of hospitalization numbers. In my country, hospitalized people are counted as "positive hospitalized" even if they are positive (due to mandatory test prior to admission) but had to go to the hospital for a completely different reason. Likewise, a region during August mandated mandatory hospitalization for most of the people positive to the virus, therefore inflating hospitalization numbers. Unless reporting is either standardized (unlikely) or harmonized (possible) it is always going to be hard to make sense of the numbers.

wolco2 6y ago

The hospitalization occurs later in the chain. This time period could be compared with February. In a month hopitalizations will be up. The case count is very misleading. The maximum number of new cases is limited by the maximum number of tests processed. Current figure is 700/cases 40,000 tests. The only way to increase the 700 cases is to increase maximum tests processed daily or pick more likely positive people to admin the test to. There could be 100,000 getting sick each day but the case count will only reflect a shadow of that information.

xyzzy_plugh 6y ago
Right, and just because hospitalizations are 15% what they were at peak, doesn't mean that the case count at peak was correct -- there were likely many more unconfirmed cases at peak, as testing was not yet widely available.
spfzero 6y ago
What’s happening now might be that more and more people are getting tested, not because they had serious symptoms, but because they need to show a positive test for some travel or other requirement, of they are just being careful because they have older family members etc. So there would appear to be more cases, even if there were in reality fewer people getting seriously sick from Covid.
jariel 6y ago
The OP has a point though. The hospitalization rates generally lag about 2 weeks and they are not going up very much. Province of BC has a lot of very detailed data on who gets it for what reason (they contact trace everything) and it's definitely younger people getting it right now. Google 'Dr. Bonnie Henry'. I think the media is purposefully underreporting the hospitalizations for the national interest and it's probably a good thing. The 'Freedom / Liberty' crowd hates to hear this kind of stuff, but the reality is, people are not very smart, even educated people can be easily misinformed and make bad decisions, which is why in a crisis we need constant behavioural reinforcement. It's been 2 generations since the Western world has had a crisis in which everyone has had to participate and 'play their role' so it's almost out of living memory, but I suggest this is normal. Smart people can read more and use the Internet for more detailed information.
lbeltrame 6y ago
It is actually hard even to make sense out of hospitalization numbers. In my country, hospitalized people are counted as "positive hospitalized" even if they are positive (due to mandatory test prior to admission) but had to go to the hospital for a completely different reason. Likewise, a region during August mandated mandatory hospitalization for most of the people positive to the virus, therefore inflating hospitalization numbers. Unless reporting is either standardized (unlikely) or harmonized (possible) it is always going to be hard to make sense of the numbers.