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> But the longer the pandemic remains under control in Sweden, with comparatively little social distancing and mask usage, the more interesting it becomes And

> But the longer the pandemic remains under control in Sweden, with comparatively little social distancing and mask usage, the more interesting it becomes And if Sweden has another outbreak? You'll revisit those arguments? Really it seems like everything you're saying is predicated on the idea that Sweden hast his "beaten" in a way that just doesn't seem rational. What's the argument that they won't see a phase 2 just like everyone else has, or will? (Obviously someone is going to chime in with "herd immunity", but that's simply wrong: other nations and regions with similar initial outbreak sizes saw second outbreaks.)

beagle3 6y ago
But none of those 2nd wave places took Sweden’s relaxed policy, which is likely to promote herd immunity (likely the only one to not fight it)
- newacct583 6y ago
  There's no science showing a higher antibody prevalence in Sweden than other places like NYC that had large outbreaks. You need to cite something if you want to claim that.
  - beagle3 6y ago
    There is no science showing antibody prevalence is required for herd immunity either; you need to cite something ..... (but you might want to look at: [0]). Everywhere except Sweden implemented legally mandated strategies -- often with police and military enforcement - that were designed to limit virus spread, including places that had just-as-bad-or-worse death outcomes such as NYC, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and France. Really, almost nothing can be said for certain, and it's definitely possible for Sweden to experience a second wave soon, but it won't if this virus' dynamics is similar to other viruses - which, by all studies, it very much is. [0] https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/28/herd-immunity-without-antibodies/ https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/28/herd-immunity-with...
    - newacct583 6y ago
      > it's definitely possible for Sweden to experience a second wave soon, but it won't if this virus' dynamics is similar to other viruses - which, by all studies, it very much is. Again, that seems like you're just trying to argue by fiat. There's NO EVIDENCE that Sweden has reached herd immunity. It's initial outbreak was less severe than Spain or France, both of which are now well into a very large phase 2 outbreak. What's the argument that this is impossible in Sweden that doesn't rest on arguing that it hasn't happened yet?
      - beagle3 6y ago
        > What's the argument that this is impossible in Sweden that doesn't rest on arguing that it hasn't happened yet? What's the argument that Sweden will experience one, given that there is no reason to believe a phase change in Sweden (or a change in circumstances, like measures in other places cause), other than that other countries experienced ones? It goes both ways.
        newacct583 6y ago
        > What's the argument that Sweden will experience one That everyone else has? Again, the only way for you to make your argument work is to argue that Sweden is somehow special in a deeply unique way. All I need to say is that they're probably just lucky.
        beagle3 6y ago
        Not everyone else has. NY's graphs, of both disease and death, are similar to Sweden's, and SURPRISE it doesn't have a 2nd wave either. All I need to say that is that they did something different to postulate that the result might be different (and so far, has). I acknowledge there is no proof either way, but you are just putting hands in your ears and saying "I can't hear you, my position is right by default so there". This argument is over as far as I am concerned.
        6y ago

beagle3 6y ago

But none of those 2nd wave places took Sweden’s relaxed policy, which is likely to promote herd immunity (likely the only one to not fight it)

newacct583 6y ago
There's no science showing a higher antibody prevalence in Sweden than other places like NYC that had large outbreaks. You need to cite something if you want to claim that.
- beagle3 6y ago
  There is no science showing antibody prevalence is required for herd immunity either; you need to cite something ..... (but you might want to look at: [0]). Everywhere except Sweden implemented legally mandated strategies -- often with police and military enforcement - that were designed to limit virus spread, including places that had just-as-bad-or-worse death outcomes such as NYC, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and France. Really, almost nothing can be said for certain, and it's definitely possible for Sweden to experience a second wave soon, but it won't if this virus' dynamics is similar to other viruses - which, by all studies, it very much is. [0] https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/28/herd-immunity-without-antibodies/ https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/28/herd-immunity-with...
  - newacct583 6y ago
    > it's definitely possible for Sweden to experience a second wave soon, but it won't if this virus' dynamics is similar to other viruses - which, by all studies, it very much is. Again, that seems like you're just trying to argue by fiat. There's NO EVIDENCE that Sweden has reached herd immunity. It's initial outbreak was less severe than Spain or France, both of which are now well into a very large phase 2 outbreak. What's the argument that this is impossible in Sweden that doesn't rest on arguing that it hasn't happened yet?
    - beagle3 6y ago
      > What's the argument that this is impossible in Sweden that doesn't rest on arguing that it hasn't happened yet? What's the argument that Sweden will experience one, given that there is no reason to believe a phase change in Sweden (or a change in circumstances, like measures in other places cause), other than that other countries experienced ones? It goes both ways.
      - newacct583 6y ago
        > What's the argument that Sweden will experience one That everyone else has? Again, the only way for you to make your argument work is to argue that Sweden is somehow special in a deeply unique way. All I need to say is that they're probably just lucky.
        beagle3 6y ago
        Not everyone else has. NY's graphs, of both disease and death, are similar to Sweden's, and SURPRISE it doesn't have a 2nd wave either. All I need to say that is that they did something different to postulate that the result might be different (and so far, has). I acknowledge there is no proof either way, but you are just putting hands in your ears and saying "I can't hear you, my position is right by default so there". This argument is over as far as I am concerned.
        6y ago