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and yet Ireland, (island nation, similiar population) is way worse off. I'd argue that it would work in any nation with an educated population where the leader

and yet Ireland, (island nation, similiar population) is way worse off. I'd argue that it would work in any nation with an educated population where the leadership is listening to health experts and not undermining the containment effort or lying about the danger.

hnracer 6y ago
Did Ireland employ the same strategy as NZ? My claim isn't that being a small island nation is a sufficient condition.
- pessimizer 6y ago
  Did a larger, non-island country without totalitarian control over their population unsuccessfully employ the same strategy as NZ? You can't have this both ways.
  - hnracer 6y ago
    Yes. Australia copied NZ almost move for move (travel nearly completely banned - small handful of daily flights with quarantine, harsh lockdowns), and failed, primarily because Australia is too big. They were able to eliminate covid in states of equivalent size as NZ, in effect achieving something just as impressive. But because the country is bigger, all it takes is a cluster in a single state to then propagate to others. Australia is a pretty small country. In a country as big as the US it would be virtually impossible to eliminate without extreme levels of control over the population.
    - tialaramex 6y ago
      This is wrong, Australia did not have New Zealand's elimination strategy. It followed the same sort of strategy as most of Western Europe. Control the worst spike with a lockdown, and then relax once the worst is over. One of the giveaways was in their briefings at the time. New Zealand was interested in every new case, because you don't get to elimination with some sort of high level statistical approach, you get there one case at a time. Australia was happy to cheer success if it had fewer cases this week than last week - but fewer isn't elimination. New Zealand left Level 2 only after weeks with zero new cases. Because they understood that "it's just one case" plus "infectious disease" multiplied by time = unlimited cases. Meanwhile Australians decided they were done, after all it's only a few cases, what's the harm? Well this is the harm.
carlob 6y ago
Except I can fly to Ireland from most of the EU for cheap (sometimes under 10 euros), with no passport and it's part of a very interconnected economy. Ireland also shares a land border with hr UK.
- cgrealy 6y ago
  It seems entirely reasonable to disallow non-essential international travel during a global pandemic.
  - adamiscool8 6y ago
    Maybe now, but that was not at all a sanctioned idea at the time, if we only listened to health experts as you suggest. [0][1][2] [0] https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/updated-who-recommendations-for-international-traffic-in-relation-to-covid-19-outbreak https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/updated-who-re... [1] https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/31/as-far-right-calls-for-china-travel-ban-health-experts-warn-coronavirus-response-would-suffer/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/31/as-far-right-calls-for-c... [2] https://euobserver.com/coronavirus/147576 https://euobserver.com/coronavirus/147576

hnracer 6y ago

Did Ireland employ the same strategy as NZ? My claim isn't that being a small island nation is a sufficient condition.

pessimizer 6y ago
Did a larger, non-island country without totalitarian control over their population unsuccessfully employ the same strategy as NZ? You can't have this both ways.
- hnracer 6y ago
  Yes. Australia copied NZ almost move for move (travel nearly completely banned - small handful of daily flights with quarantine, harsh lockdowns), and failed, primarily because Australia is too big. They were able to eliminate covid in states of equivalent size as NZ, in effect achieving something just as impressive. But because the country is bigger, all it takes is a cluster in a single state to then propagate to others. Australia is a pretty small country. In a country as big as the US it would be virtually impossible to eliminate without extreme levels of control over the population.
  - tialaramex 6y ago
    This is wrong, Australia did not have New Zealand's elimination strategy. It followed the same sort of strategy as most of Western Europe. Control the worst spike with a lockdown, and then relax once the worst is over. One of the giveaways was in their briefings at the time. New Zealand was interested in every new case, because you don't get to elimination with some sort of high level statistical approach, you get there one case at a time. Australia was happy to cheer success if it had fewer cases this week than last week - but fewer isn't elimination. New Zealand left Level 2 only after weeks with zero new cases. Because they understood that "it's just one case" plus "infectious disease" multiplied by time = unlimited cases. Meanwhile Australians decided they were done, after all it's only a few cases, what's the harm? Well this is the harm.

carlob 6y ago

Except I can fly to Ireland from most of the EU for cheap (sometimes under 10 euros), with no passport and it's part of a very interconnected economy. Ireland also shares a land border with hr UK.

cgrealy 6y ago
It seems entirely reasonable to disallow non-essential international travel during a global pandemic.
- adamiscool8 6y ago
  Maybe now, but that was not at all a sanctioned idea at the time, if we only listened to health experts as you suggest. [0][1][2] [0] https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/updated-who-recommendations-for-international-traffic-in-relation-to-covid-19-outbreak https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/updated-who-re... [1] https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/31/as-far-right-calls-for-china-travel-ban-health-experts-warn-coronavirus-response-would-suffer/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/31/as-far-right-calls-for-c... [2] https://euobserver.com/coronavirus/147576 https://euobserver.com/coronavirus/147576