4 ms·

> We are way beyond the point where hospitals are horribly overwhelmed I ask as someone who genuinely doesn't know either way, but is there a realistic risk of

> We are way beyond the point where hospitals are horribly overwhelmed I ask as someone who genuinely doesn't know either way, but is there a realistic risk of this happening again?

cwhiz 6y ago
Yes. If the numbers creep up past a certain point, you roll back. Or you do like Sweden and just let free citizens make their own decisions.
- mcguire 6y ago
  87% of the deaths in Sweden were over 70, and they are a net drain on the economy anyway. -- Jonathan Swift
albemuth 6y ago
The “spiteful” people wanting to watch rich people fail are preventing this from happening by being responsible
- mistermann 6y ago
  How might one go about knowing such a thing?
jjeaff 6y ago
Yes, because in the US, even recently, in covid hotspots hospitals have become overwhelmed. Shutdowns in those areas have managed to get the rates back down.
- mistermann 6y ago
  I haven't heard of this, does anyone have any articles that go into detail about the magnitude of the overwhelment?
choeger 6y ago
Generally, yes. What happened in New York could happen everywhere (Berlin, Paris, London, Tokyo, Beijing). But in practice the virus seems to have somewhat slowed down. With the notable exceptions of France and Spain the second wave so far seems to grow much slower. That might be due to more tests, but I think the effect is caused by a general change in behavior. We are also better prepared, both in the effectiveness of treatment and the diagnosis of severe cases. Also, if shift comes to shove, there are several experimental vaccines already. They might not be very efficient, but they should be comparatively safe by now. So all in all, I would say the worst could be behind us.
- UncleOxidant 6y ago
  Winter is coming. The second wave in Europe was initially driven by the young. Now it's beginning to spread to older people.
  - natrik 6y ago
    "2 more weeks.", "We don't know the long term effects", "Winter is coming". We are ~3 months from 2021, COVID-"2019" most likely will be endemic.
mquirion 6y ago
Wisconsin is already heading in that direction. https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/09/30/wisconsin-hospitals-wait-list-patients-covid-19-surge-coronavirus-green-bay-fox-valley-wausau/3578202001/ https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/09/30/wisconsin-hos... North Dakota has 22 ICU beds left in the state.
rhino369 6y ago
Yes, but less than the first time around since a lot of people already had it, we had time to prepare, and social distancing measures (avoiding dense areas, masks, etc) make a fast break out more unlikely.

> We are way beyond the point where hospitals are horribly overwhelmed I ask as someone who genuinely doesn't know either way, but is there a realistic risk of this happening again?

cwhiz 6y ago

Yes. If the numbers creep up past a certain point, you roll back. Or you do like Sweden and just let free citizens make their own decisions.

mcguire 6y ago
87% of the deaths in Sweden were over 70, and they are a net drain on the economy anyway. -- Jonathan Swift

albemuth 6y ago

The “spiteful” people wanting to watch rich people fail are preventing this from happening by being responsible

mistermann 6y ago
How might one go about knowing such a thing?

jjeaff 6y ago

Yes, because in the US, even recently, in covid hotspots hospitals have become overwhelmed. Shutdowns in those areas have managed to get the rates back down.

mistermann 6y ago
I haven't heard of this, does anyone have any articles that go into detail about the magnitude of the overwhelment?

choeger 6y ago

Generally, yes. What happened in New York could happen everywhere (Berlin, Paris, London, Tokyo, Beijing). But in practice the virus seems to have somewhat slowed down. With the notable exceptions of France and Spain the second wave so far seems to grow much slower. That might be due to more tests, but I think the effect is caused by a general change in behavior. We are also better prepared, both in the effectiveness of treatment and the diagnosis of severe cases. Also, if shift comes to shove, there are several experimental vaccines already. They might not be very efficient, but they should be comparatively safe by now. So all in all, I would say the worst could be behind us.

UncleOxidant 6y ago
Winter is coming. The second wave in Europe was initially driven by the young. Now it's beginning to spread to older people.
- natrik 6y ago
  "2 more weeks.", "We don't know the long term effects", "Winter is coming". We are ~3 months from 2021, COVID-"2019" most likely will be endemic.

mquirion 6y ago

Wisconsin is already heading in that direction. https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/09/30/wisconsin-hospitals-wait-list-patients-covid-19-surge-coronavirus-green-bay-fox-valley-wausau/3578202001/ https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/09/30/wisconsin-hos... North Dakota has 22 ICU beds left in the state.

rhino369 6y ago

Yes, but less than the first time around since a lot of people already had it, we had time to prepare, and social distancing measures (avoiding dense areas, masks, etc) make a fast break out more unlikely.