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I think Musk will deliver. May take another 5 years. Sure we'll still be buying older kit like vsats for a year or two after that too, but it isn't going to be

I think Musk will deliver. May take another 5 years. Sure we'll still be buying older kit like vsats for a year or two after that too, but it isn't going to be growing. You're right about GEO market -- it's more than just IP. We have an old UKI doing probably it's last event this weekend (delayed due to covid). The replacement doesn't have a dish. Started decommissioning a truck with a vsat today -- replacement is 4g/5g only. The traditional non-IP market is shrinking even without starlink. The biggest risk to starlink I suspect would be Musk dying. He seems to have the ability to defy naysayers and change industries.

gamblor956 6y ago
There is a 0% chance of Musk delivering. OTOH, there's a good chance that the many engineers and scientists at SpaceX, working under Gwynne Shotwell, will deliver something viable. Stop giving Musk credit for the things he didn't do. His death won't affect the viability of Starlink, and if anything, it would likely improve the final product. SpaceX's successes and failures are generally inversely proportional to the attention Musks puts into running the company; i.e., SpaceX's success is inversely proportional to his micromanaging and meddling.