10 ms·
It does not clearly say that it is Monty’s procedure to - allways open a door - allways open a door with a goat - and not open a door at random Often discus
by jonsen 6y ago
It does not clearly say that it is Monty’s procedure to
- allways open a door
- allways open a door with a goat
- and not open a door at random
Often discussion of the solution reveals that this is not clear.
- jibal 6y agoThis is goalpost moving that has nothing to do with the original point. If people misunderstand the conditions of the problem, that has nothing to do with intuitions about probability. I won't respond further.
- jonsen 6y ago> nothing to do with the original point. Agree, but my point is that the Monty puzzle is a bad example to use educational if not careful.
- 542354234235 6y agoThere are three doors. You have picked one, leaving two other doors. It absolutely explicitly says he opens one door. The only options are a goat or a car. If it was a car, you would have lost already and so there is no problem. If it was random, you still get the same information (what is behind one of the unpicked doors).
- jonsen 6y ago> If it was random, you still get the same information No, if both you and Monty pick a door at random, there’s 1/3 chance of a car behind each door. If Monty’s door reveals a goat, it’s 50/50 for the remaining two doors. It’s mandatory to specify Monty’s procedure precisely.