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That's a version of "The Wait Calculation". For instance, it would be a waste of resources to build a starship right now to visit the closest other solar system

That's a version of "The Wait Calculation". For instance, it would be a waste of resources to build a starship right now to visit the closest other solar systems, because given our current maximum velocity and our rate of technological increase, it's a virtual certainty that in the future we would be able to build a second starship that would catch up and overtake it. Eventually there is a break even point (for the closest solar systems, last I checked, it's around 400 years), but in order to know what it is you need to know the amount of time to reach the goal and your rate of increase. I don't know if there's a way to estimate that with fusion research.

ada1981 6y ago
This is a great mental model. I'm curious about applying this in areas of one's own life. Certain things that you'd actually accomplish faster, by starting later and leveraging the compounded time / resources that would have been spent pursuing it earlier.
- rrdharan 6y ago
  The 80,000 hours folks generally apply this kind of reasoning to explain why it’s better for most people to just focus on a corporate job, stockpile a ton of cash, and donate it all when you die, instead of quitting to join a cause / non-profit - if your only goal is to optimize your impact. Obviously people are free to choose differently and there are exceptions, unique circumstances etc.
  - barry-cotter 6y ago
    I’m reasonably confident your summary of their advice is out of date. They now believe most organizations are talent constrained and the difference between the best and second best candidate is often very large so most people should be trying to work on hard problems fast if they can.
- baking 6y ago
  OT, but if solar panels last for over 20 years and get at least 5% cheaper every year, you save more money by waiting to install them than you do by installing them.
  - phicoh 6y ago
    That does not factor in the money you make with the solar panel. I.e., if having a solar panel nets a profit of 10% of the cost of the solar panel, than installing one now makes more money than waiting a year.

ada1981 6y ago

This is a great mental model. I'm curious about applying this in areas of one's own life. Certain things that you'd actually accomplish faster, by starting later and leveraging the compounded time / resources that would have been spent pursuing it earlier.

rrdharan 6y ago
The 80,000 hours folks generally apply this kind of reasoning to explain why it’s better for most people to just focus on a corporate job, stockpile a ton of cash, and donate it all when you die, instead of quitting to join a cause / non-profit - if your only goal is to optimize your impact. Obviously people are free to choose differently and there are exceptions, unique circumstances etc.
- barry-cotter 6y ago
  I’m reasonably confident your summary of their advice is out of date. They now believe most organizations are talent constrained and the difference between the best and second best candidate is often very large so most people should be trying to work on hard problems fast if they can.
baking 6y ago
OT, but if solar panels last for over 20 years and get at least 5% cheaper every year, you save more money by waiting to install them than you do by installing them.
- phicoh 6y ago
  That does not factor in the money you make with the solar panel. I.e., if having a solar panel nets a profit of 10% of the cost of the solar panel, than installing one now makes more money than waiting a year.