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> Critics question why CEO Dara Khosrowshahi hasn’t held the team accountable. Because Uber's insane valuation is largely predicated on them being able to pivo

> Critics question why CEO Dara Khosrowshahi hasn’t held the team accountable. Because Uber's insane valuation is largely predicated on them being able to pivot out of expensive human "driver-partners" into cheap and compliant robots, and any sort of public acknowledgement that this is not going to happen would tank their stock.

paxys 6y ago
There is really nothing to back that claim. There are plenty of other companies in similar sectors (ridesharing, transportation, food delivery) in the US and beyond with similar valuations and no self driving ambitions or technology. Uber's self driving research has been seen from day 1 as an expensive hobby, nothing more. A company which can achieve level 5 automation and has the capability to roll it out worldwide is worth a hell of a lot more than $60 billion.
- rdw 6y ago
  https://www.inc.com/jason-aten/uber-lyft-are-betting-that-driverless-cars-will-help-them-finally-make-money-heres-why-it-wont-work.html https://www.inc.com/jason-aten/uber-lyft-are-betting-that-dr... https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/apr/19/ubers-self-driving-car-unit-valued-at-73bn-as-it-gears-up-for-ipo https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/apr/19/ubers-sel... https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2018/01/24/uber-profitability-self-driving-cars.html https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2018/01/24/ube... https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-uber-ipo-stock-price-self-driving-20190513-story.html https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-uber-ipo-stock-price-... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/ubers-self-driving-cars-are-a-key-to-its-path-to-profitability.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/ubers-self-driving-cars-are-... https://www.wired.com/story/bet-uber-bet-self-driving/ https://www.wired.com/story/bet-uber-bet-self-driving/ I think the broadest interpretation is that autonomous driving was one of a few irons Uber has had in the fire to achieve profitability. The other irons include Uber Eats, Jump, and lately, grocery delivery. The miracle hasn't happened yet!
  - paxys 6y ago
    Okay, so in the extreme case Uber's self driving division is estimated to be worth ~$7 billion? That proves my point more than it refutes it. Their stock has fluctuated more than that this past month.
    - rdw 6y ago
      That $7 bn valuation came only a year after the disastrous 2018 crash which forced them to shut down the entire program for months, with months of of lurid news stories highlighting failure after failure. Probably a low point, actually. The developing narrative seems to be that self-driving was a longshot that could have paid off hugely, had it worked out, but it's been plagued with problems and it just seems very unlikely to pay off now. But still not zero, since no one else has shipped anything. Investors probably valued it like (0.7% chance of success * 1 trillion upside = 7 billion).
whakim 6y ago
I'm not sure that self-driving cars would make the difference to Uber's profits that everyone assumes. Uber would probably have to own all the vehicles and pay all the costs associated with owning a huge fleet. Has anyone actually done the math on how much money that saves over paying drivers?

paxys 6y ago

There is really nothing to back that claim. There are plenty of other companies in similar sectors (ridesharing, transportation, food delivery) in the US and beyond with similar valuations and no self driving ambitions or technology. Uber's self driving research has been seen from day 1 as an expensive hobby, nothing more. A company which can achieve level 5 automation and has the capability to roll it out worldwide is worth a hell of a lot more than $60 billion.

rdw 6y ago
https://www.inc.com/jason-aten/uber-lyft-are-betting-that-driverless-cars-will-help-them-finally-make-money-heres-why-it-wont-work.html https://www.inc.com/jason-aten/uber-lyft-are-betting-that-dr... https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/apr/19/ubers-self-driving-car-unit-valued-at-73bn-as-it-gears-up-for-ipo https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/apr/19/ubers-sel... https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2018/01/24/uber-profitability-self-driving-cars.html https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2018/01/24/ube... https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-uber-ipo-stock-price-self-driving-20190513-story.html https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-uber-ipo-stock-price-... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/ubers-self-driving-cars-are-a-key-to-its-path-to-profitability.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/ubers-self-driving-cars-are-... https://www.wired.com/story/bet-uber-bet-self-driving/ https://www.wired.com/story/bet-uber-bet-self-driving/ I think the broadest interpretation is that autonomous driving was one of a few irons Uber has had in the fire to achieve profitability. The other irons include Uber Eats, Jump, and lately, grocery delivery. The miracle hasn't happened yet!
- paxys 6y ago
  Okay, so in the extreme case Uber's self driving division is estimated to be worth ~$7 billion? That proves my point more than it refutes it. Their stock has fluctuated more than that this past month.
  - rdw 6y ago
    That $7 bn valuation came only a year after the disastrous 2018 crash which forced them to shut down the entire program for months, with months of of lurid news stories highlighting failure after failure. Probably a low point, actually. The developing narrative seems to be that self-driving was a longshot that could have paid off hugely, had it worked out, but it's been plagued with problems and it just seems very unlikely to pay off now. But still not zero, since no one else has shipped anything. Investors probably valued it like (0.7% chance of success * 1 trillion upside = 7 billion).

whakim 6y ago

I'm not sure that self-driving cars would make the difference to Uber's profits that everyone assumes. Uber would probably have to own all the vehicles and pay all the costs associated with owning a huge fleet. Has anyone actually done the math on how much money that saves over paying drivers?