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I’ve become less convinced that governments are going to prioritize autonomous driving over electric.

by xoxoy 6y ago

judge2020 6y ago
There's more real money (hint: lobbying money) backing electric cars right now than there is backing autonomy since everyone in the industry knows it's at least 5 years before we get borderline level 4/99.99% reliable level 3 driving and a good 30 years before we get the 8+ nines that are needed to truly go to level 5 autonomy; most local laws are already well equipped to handle people using level 4 autonomy, so it isn't a priority thing to address. Edit: I realize that level 4 doesn't ask you to take over, so I've edited my comments to reflect that.
- closeparen 6y ago
  Commuting 10k miles/year is nothing special. Only four nines is still an accident every year.
  - judge2020 6y ago
    I'm talking about four nines in terms of reliability (not crashes) and on level 3, where the car still has all the regular driving controls - so if there is a problem or the system has high uncertainty about certain road situations it can force/return control to the driver and have them navigate the unknown situation. I'm also probably being too optimistic predicting four nines in 5 years, it'll probably be 10 years or more for people to be able to reliably take their hands off the wheel for extended periods of time on interstates. Edit: I realize that level 4 doesn't ask you to take over, so I've edited my comments to reflect that.
    - xoxoy 6y ago
      the issue is that randomly requiring non-professional drivers to take over during a trip is an underestimated danger. people get accustomed to it working 99% of the time and get lazy - then the 1% it fails and the driver is asleep or distracted or watching a movie and becomes a major safety issue. ex all the horror stories of distracted Tesla drivers using autopilot like full autonomous driving today.
      - ghaff 6y ago
        Furthermore, if you stipulate hand-offs will sometimes be needed, you now can't use the car for many of the use cases that proponents want because you need a competent adult driver to take over. And, yes, people imagine scenarios like remote drivers taking over. That seems a very difficult problem--especially if the situation is such that the autopilot is confused.

I’ve become less convinced that governments are going to prioritize autonomous driving over electric.

by xoxoy 6y ago

I’ve become less convinced that governments are going to prioritize autonomous driving over electric.

judge2020 6y ago

There's more real money (hint: lobbying money) backing electric cars right now than there is backing autonomy since everyone in the industry knows it's at least 5 years before we get borderline level 4/99.99% reliable level 3 driving and a good 30 years before we get the 8+ nines that are needed to truly go to level 5 autonomy; most local laws are already well equipped to handle people using level 4 autonomy, so it isn't a priority thing to address. Edit: I realize that level 4 doesn't ask you to take over, so I've edited my comments to reflect that.

closeparen 6y ago
Commuting 10k miles/year is nothing special. Only four nines is still an accident every year.
- judge2020 6y ago
  I'm talking about four nines in terms of reliability (not crashes) and on level 3, where the car still has all the regular driving controls - so if there is a problem or the system has high uncertainty about certain road situations it can force/return control to the driver and have them navigate the unknown situation. I'm also probably being too optimistic predicting four nines in 5 years, it'll probably be 10 years or more for people to be able to reliably take their hands off the wheel for extended periods of time on interstates. Edit: I realize that level 4 doesn't ask you to take over, so I've edited my comments to reflect that.
  - xoxoy 6y ago
    the issue is that randomly requiring non-professional drivers to take over during a trip is an underestimated danger. people get accustomed to it working 99% of the time and get lazy - then the 1% it fails and the driver is asleep or distracted or watching a movie and becomes a major safety issue. ex all the horror stories of distracted Tesla drivers using autopilot like full autonomous driving today.
    - ghaff 6y ago
      Furthermore, if you stipulate hand-offs will sometimes be needed, you now can't use the car for many of the use cases that proponents want because you need a competent adult driver to take over. And, yes, people imagine scenarios like remote drivers taking over. That seems a very difficult problem--especially if the situation is such that the autopilot is confused.