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Yup, the price of oil was a steady $20/barrel from 1880 through the 1960s. Now it's $100/barrel. Now imagine what is going to happen if the demand for batterie

Yup, the price of oil was a steady $20/barrel from 1880 through the 1960s. Now it's $100/barrel. Now imagine what is going to happen if the demand for batteries increases one thousand fold (which is what is necessary to make grid storage possible) over the course of a decade or two.

reitzensteinm 6y ago
But you said it increased! It did not. So why will scaling up battery demand a thousand fold over the course of a decade or two make it explode in price, but scaling up nuclear plant construction five hundred fold (from two to a thousand) not do the same? You are putting your thumb on the scales. I think we're done here.
- Manfredo_1 6y ago
  Price is a function of supply and demand. Demand for oil was largely flat for most of the period from 1900 to 1970. It took 15 years to double from 1925 to 1940 [1]. And then another 10 years to double by 1950. It increased by a factor of 5 from 1960 to 1970, but in 1970 demand finally caught up with supply. And guess what? The price surged to over $100 a barrel. Understand that even just 1 hour of energy storage for the US exceeds global battery production. If we try to use batteries for gird storage we're going to experience a battery shock in the same vein as the oil shock. That'll be terrible, because it will stunt electric vehicle adoption. There are much better uses for batteries than grid storage. We're both putting our thumb on the scale: You're claiming that we're going to see a 10x decrease in battery cost, despite surging demand for batteries. I'm explaining that nuclear built at scale will likely cost 4-5x less than current nuclear projects. The difference is I have historical precedence to justify this statement. We did build nuclear at a much larger scale during the 1970s, and it did cost 4-5x less on average. Will battery production scale up like oil production did over the course of 1900 to 1970? Maybe, but that's an entirely speculative claim. The reality is that if countries start attempting to purchase grid scale batteries, we're going to experience a battery shock in the same vein as the oil shock following the Arab oil embargo. If the US tries the purchase 1 hour worth of battery storage the price for that amount of batteries is infinite. Or undefined. Because 1 hour of battery storage for the US is greater the the total amount of battery production in the entire world. The mismatch between supply and demand is that large. Increase in demand, leads to an increase in cost, which in turn incentivizes increased production. The production of batteries is forecasted to increase substantially, but it's still well below what's required for grid storage. 1. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/World-crude-oil-production-from-1925-to-2005-The-dominance-of-the-giant-oil-fields-can_fig2_46496655 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/World-crude-oil-producti...

reitzensteinm 6y ago

But you said it increased! It did not. So why will scaling up battery demand a thousand fold over the course of a decade or two make it explode in price, but scaling up nuclear plant construction five hundred fold (from two to a thousand) not do the same? You are putting your thumb on the scales. I think we're done here.

Manfredo_1 6y ago
Price is a function of supply and demand. Demand for oil was largely flat for most of the period from 1900 to 1970. It took 15 years to double from 1925 to 1940 [1]. And then another 10 years to double by 1950. It increased by a factor of 5 from 1960 to 1970, but in 1970 demand finally caught up with supply. And guess what? The price surged to over $100 a barrel. Understand that even just 1 hour of energy storage for the US exceeds global battery production. If we try to use batteries for gird storage we're going to experience a battery shock in the same vein as the oil shock. That'll be terrible, because it will stunt electric vehicle adoption. There are much better uses for batteries than grid storage. We're both putting our thumb on the scale: You're claiming that we're going to see a 10x decrease in battery cost, despite surging demand for batteries. I'm explaining that nuclear built at scale will likely cost 4-5x less than current nuclear projects. The difference is I have historical precedence to justify this statement. We did build nuclear at a much larger scale during the 1970s, and it did cost 4-5x less on average. Will battery production scale up like oil production did over the course of 1900 to 1970? Maybe, but that's an entirely speculative claim. The reality is that if countries start attempting to purchase grid scale batteries, we're going to experience a battery shock in the same vein as the oil shock following the Arab oil embargo. If the US tries the purchase 1 hour worth of battery storage the price for that amount of batteries is infinite. Or undefined. Because 1 hour of battery storage for the US is greater the the total amount of battery production in the entire world. The mismatch between supply and demand is that large. Increase in demand, leads to an increase in cost, which in turn incentivizes increased production. The production of batteries is forecasted to increase substantially, but it's still well below what's required for grid storage. 1. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/World-crude-oil-production-from-1925-to-2005-The-dominance-of-the-giant-oil-fields-can_fig2_46496655 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/World-crude-oil-producti...