Nah, you innately understand it! It's not a 1:1 relationship because a 2% drop of a stock will change the derivatives of that instrument in "imperfect" ways. Th

Nah, you innately understand it! It's not a 1:1 relationship because a 2% drop of a stock will change the derivatives of that instrument in "imperfect" ways. The further away from the ground truth in anything, the more noise/variance/differing signal.