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Indeed it was a massive messaging error. For maybe 20% more short term work we’d be in a new zealand/east asia situation. Summer was the time to do it. Now we

by graeme 6y ago

Indeed it was a massive messaging error. For maybe 20% more short term work we’d be in a new zealand/east asia situation. Summer was the time to do it. Now we just have hard choices.

makomk 6y ago
At this point, I think it's pretty clear that New Zealand's approach couldn't be expected to lead to New Zealand-style results in places that aren't relatively small islands a thousand miles or so by sea from the nearest neighbour. There are just too many infections that slip through the net even after banning most people from travelling there and requiring returnees to quarantine in state-run facilities at their own expense for two weeks - it works for them, but the same level of per-capita leakage in a country with even ten times the population would cause such a stream of imported cases spreading Covid in the community that I don't think it'd ever be able to drop below level three restrictions, let alone beome Covid-free. In reality the UK probably wouldn't even be able to manage that - for example, we have a constant stream of lorry drivers coming in from locations throughout Europe to destinations throughout the UK, many of them with absolutely vital goods, and that's a great way to spread Covid from country to country. Somewhere like the US would stand even less chance.
- graeme 6y ago
  I’m originally from eastern canada. They have completely eliminated local transmission. And they have truck drivers bringing in goods, including from the US. Haven’t heard of it as a source of transmission. Truck drivers generally don’t get off their shift and then go sing karaoke. And I live now in Quebec, which got local transmission down to almost nothing. But then they opened bars for three months. I think if they had kept them closed a month longer and told the pop “get to zero and we can have a normal winter” we could have done it. Now we’re surging again.
LudwigNagasena 6y ago
There was no messaging error. Everyone was talking about flattening the curve, no one was talking about preventing cases. I wonder where this gaslighting comes from. It seems like we don't even need 1984 agencies to rewrite history, people do it themselves in their heads to keep up with the current agenda...
- graeme 6y ago
  What I mean is a lot of people, like me, said flatten the curve, but would have wanted to eliminate it if it seemed reasonably possible. So I and other people who said the same thing now feel we made an error. Flatten the curve started as a Twitter meme and only then spread to governments. I don’t think govts wanted to eliminate, but my point is I wish those who were in the forefront had sent a different message. I was looking at this from mid feb, before western governments were generally sending any message at all.

by graeme 6y ago

Indeed it was a massive messaging error. For maybe 20% more short term work we’d be in a new zealand/east asia situation. Summer was the time to do it. Now we just have hard choices.

makomk 6y ago

At this point, I think it's pretty clear that New Zealand's approach couldn't be expected to lead to New Zealand-style results in places that aren't relatively small islands a thousand miles or so by sea from the nearest neighbour. There are just too many infections that slip through the net even after banning most people from travelling there and requiring returnees to quarantine in state-run facilities at their own expense for two weeks - it works for them, but the same level of per-capita leakage in a country with even ten times the population would cause such a stream of imported cases spreading Covid in the community that I don't think it'd ever be able to drop below level three restrictions, let alone beome Covid-free. In reality the UK probably wouldn't even be able to manage that - for example, we have a constant stream of lorry drivers coming in from locations throughout Europe to destinations throughout the UK, many of them with absolutely vital goods, and that's a great way to spread Covid from country to country. Somewhere like the US would stand even less chance.

graeme 6y ago
I’m originally from eastern canada. They have completely eliminated local transmission. And they have truck drivers bringing in goods, including from the US. Haven’t heard of it as a source of transmission. Truck drivers generally don’t get off their shift and then go sing karaoke. And I live now in Quebec, which got local transmission down to almost nothing. But then they opened bars for three months. I think if they had kept them closed a month longer and told the pop “get to zero and we can have a normal winter” we could have done it. Now we’re surging again.

LudwigNagasena 6y ago

There was no messaging error. Everyone was talking about flattening the curve, no one was talking about preventing cases. I wonder where this gaslighting comes from. It seems like we don't even need 1984 agencies to rewrite history, people do it themselves in their heads to keep up with the current agenda...

graeme 6y ago
What I mean is a lot of people, like me, said flatten the curve, but would have wanted to eliminate it if it seemed reasonably possible. So I and other people who said the same thing now feel we made an error. Flatten the curve started as a Twitter meme and only then spread to governments. I don’t think govts wanted to eliminate, but my point is I wish those who were in the forefront had sent a different message. I was looking at this from mid feb, before western governments were generally sending any message at all.