4 ms·

Is TSMC the only who is close to doing this? What about Samsung or Intel? Or research labs that do smaller runs?

vbezhenar 6y ago
I think that Intel is one step behind. They'll likely produce 7nm in 2024 which should be comparable with TSMC 5nm. But TSMC 5nm already available for Apple.
- derision 6y ago
  Intel is more like 3 steps behind, one of their shoes is missing and the other is missing laces
  - hinkley 6y ago
    Having lived inside similar but much smaller dramas, it smells to me like Intel is titrating bad news. There was a goal. The goal became PR. Someone in management began to believe the PR, and turned it into a promise, predicated on 'and then a miracle occurs' (the engineers figure out how to do some things that haven't been done before). The engineers keep trying to explain how nobody has done this before because you can't. To do so involves violating the laws of physics or Information Theory. Anyone who cracks this problem deserves a Nobel nomination, so that probably isn't us. Middle management is stuck in the middle because someone has made promises we can't keep, and they either make it worse or help cover it up by playing for time. You either solve a different problem that has similar behavior (or at least, until researchers discover Meltdown), or you slowly reset expectations until people are chronically grumpy but nobody is yelling.
    - reducesuffering 6y ago
      This exact scenario is parodied in the show Silicon Valley[0] It's probably fairly commonplace. [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ7m7mV864A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ7m7mV864A
      - hinkley 6y ago
        I can never decide if Mike Judge is really this good, or we are really this transparent that a mostly-outsider can peg us so accurately.
        reducesuffering 6y ago
        They have very good industry-insider consultants for the show. Plus, Mike Judge was a Silicon Valley engineer a long time ago, so I'm sure his experience gives him some insight into how to interpret the consultants and portray the modern incarnation.
        nitrogen 6y ago
        Considering how poorly and inaccurately tech is portrayed in most other shows, I'm inclined to believe it's Mike Judge and the people that he chooses to listen to.
    - threatripper 6y ago
      There's almost no useful public insider information about the actual state of Intel's next gen technologies. We only know what is actually shipping and promises in PR slides. Sometimes I wonder if they don't know much more inside the company. There's roadmaps, projects, timelines, factories, teams, project managers, middle managers etc. but nobody has a clear picture of what's actually necessary and what's going to work in time. Engineers overpromise on the timeline, managers misreport "minor" hangups and upper management is left in the dark until it's much too late to change horses. Then there's stories of the old guard of engineers leaving but the replacements aren't getting up to speed quickly. Management even needs to consider outsourcing production to other companies because their homegrown engineering failed them time and time again lately. I really hope the core of the company is still solid and they get their act together soon.
- AgloeDreams 6y ago
  And that is even a bit of a high risk guess, probably closer to 2025. But yeah, pretty much. Is Intel even looking into Mbcfet?
  - ixfo 6y ago
    Given Intel has stated now they'll consider outsourced fabs, it'd be a pretty sound bet.
gimmeThaBeet 6y ago
FWIW I thought Samsung trademarked the name MBCFET. Not saying that is in fact worth much, just that I know for a fact Samsung has been concrete about when this is going to be a process customers can use. On paper I don't think it's risky to say everyone is looking at GAAFETs and MBCFETs, they're the evolution of finFETs (okay, we have the fin, what about more than one fin? Okay, how about the channel is surrounded by the gate (Gate-All-Around)?) How far along is everyone to making them commercially available with good yields, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. I think the surprising thing to me was TSMC has thus far (as of like a month ago) been of the mind "nah, finFETs are fine". But keep in mind, that was for their 3nm node, which this isn't. https://www.anandtech.com/show/16041/where-are-my-gaafets-tsmc-to-stay-with-finfet-for-3nm https://www.anandtech.com/show/16041/where-are-my-gaafets-ts...
- ksec 6y ago
  That is certainly not true. TSMC has always had a conservative culture. They dont aim at x% of improvement per process node like Intel. GAA for 3nm has long been known to be not ready for 2022. They actually mentioned this in 2019. But it was only confirmed later at a conference that Anandtech picked it up. Mainstream media being an echo chamber decide to copy each other and the news spread like wild fire. So it was only logical to push those improvements to 2nm.
  - gimmeThaBeet 6y ago
    You would have to be more specific about what you are claiming is untrue, that's a bit vague. I'm aware of how TSMC felt about the prospects of GAA at 3nm, and their view of Samsung's yield prospects (i.e. not great). Sure, it's logical to push GAA to the next node if you can, but part of TSMCs style is that they didn't even confirm that they were moving past fins until earlier this year.
  - LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
    >conservative culture They don't even have twitter! (Or do they and I've been too stupid to find it? Official I mean.)

I think that Intel is one step behind. They'll likely produce 7nm in 2024 which should be comparable with TSMC 5nm. But TSMC 5nm already available for Apple.

derision 6y ago
Intel is more like 3 steps behind, one of their shoes is missing and the other is missing laces
- hinkley 6y ago
  Having lived inside similar but much smaller dramas, it smells to me like Intel is titrating bad news. There was a goal. The goal became PR. Someone in management began to believe the PR, and turned it into a promise, predicated on 'and then a miracle occurs' (the engineers figure out how to do some things that haven't been done before). The engineers keep trying to explain how nobody has done this before because you can't. To do so involves violating the laws of physics or Information Theory. Anyone who cracks this problem deserves a Nobel nomination, so that probably isn't us. Middle management is stuck in the middle because someone has made promises we can't keep, and they either make it worse or help cover it up by playing for time. You either solve a different problem that has similar behavior (or at least, until researchers discover Meltdown), or you slowly reset expectations until people are chronically grumpy but nobody is yelling.
  - reducesuffering 6y ago
    This exact scenario is parodied in the show Silicon Valley[0] It's probably fairly commonplace. [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ7m7mV864A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ7m7mV864A
    - hinkley 6y ago
      I can never decide if Mike Judge is really this good, or we are really this transparent that a mostly-outsider can peg us so accurately.
      - reducesuffering 6y ago
        They have very good industry-insider consultants for the show. Plus, Mike Judge was a Silicon Valley engineer a long time ago, so I'm sure his experience gives him some insight into how to interpret the consultants and portray the modern incarnation.
      - nitrogen 6y ago
        Considering how poorly and inaccurately tech is portrayed in most other shows, I'm inclined to believe it's Mike Judge and the people that he chooses to listen to.
  - threatripper 6y ago
    There's almost no useful public insider information about the actual state of Intel's next gen technologies. We only know what is actually shipping and promises in PR slides. Sometimes I wonder if they don't know much more inside the company. There's roadmaps, projects, timelines, factories, teams, project managers, middle managers etc. but nobody has a clear picture of what's actually necessary and what's going to work in time. Engineers overpromise on the timeline, managers misreport "minor" hangups and upper management is left in the dark until it's much too late to change horses. Then there's stories of the old guard of engineers leaving but the replacements aren't getting up to speed quickly. Management even needs to consider outsourcing production to other companies because their homegrown engineering failed them time and time again lately. I really hope the core of the company is still solid and they get their act together soon.
AgloeDreams 6y ago
And that is even a bit of a high risk guess, probably closer to 2025. But yeah, pretty much. Is Intel even looking into Mbcfet?
- ixfo 6y ago
  Given Intel has stated now they'll consider outsourced fabs, it'd be a pretty sound bet.

gimmeThaBeet 6y ago

FWIW I thought Samsung trademarked the name MBCFET. Not saying that is in fact worth much, just that I know for a fact Samsung has been concrete about when this is going to be a process customers can use. On paper I don't think it's risky to say everyone is looking at GAAFETs and MBCFETs, they're the evolution of finFETs (okay, we have the fin, what about more than one fin? Okay, how about the channel is surrounded by the gate (Gate-All-Around)?) How far along is everyone to making them commercially available with good yields, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. I think the surprising thing to me was TSMC has thus far (as of like a month ago) been of the mind "nah, finFETs are fine". But keep in mind, that was for their 3nm node, which this isn't. https://www.anandtech.com/show/16041/where-are-my-gaafets-tsmc-to-stay-with-finfet-for-3nm https://www.anandtech.com/show/16041/where-are-my-gaafets-ts...

ksec 6y ago
That is certainly not true. TSMC has always had a conservative culture. They dont aim at x% of improvement per process node like Intel. GAA for 3nm has long been known to be not ready for 2022. They actually mentioned this in 2019. But it was only confirmed later at a conference that Anandtech picked it up. Mainstream media being an echo chamber decide to copy each other and the news spread like wild fire. So it was only logical to push those improvements to 2nm.
- gimmeThaBeet 6y ago
  You would have to be more specific about what you are claiming is untrue, that's a bit vague. I'm aware of how TSMC felt about the prospects of GAA at 3nm, and their view of Samsung's yield prospects (i.e. not great). Sure, it's logical to push GAA to the next node if you can, but part of TSMCs style is that they didn't even confirm that they were moving past fins until earlier this year.
- LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
  >conservative culture They don't even have twitter! (Or do they and I've been too stupid to find it? Official I mean.)