4 ms·
It's been a while since i read about the SAGE / Imperial College Model, so I'm rusty on the details. However, my recollection is that a. there were serious tech
by rindalir 6y ago
It's been a while since i read about the SAGE / Imperial College Model, so I'm rusty on the details. However, my recollection is that a. there were serious technical issues with it, in terms of quality of construction, stability of results from run to run, and with the assumptions that went into it, and b. it predicted a much higher number of deaths even with a full lockdown.
- matthewdgreen 6y agoI don’t think the IC model considered social distancing. It was a worst case. However: New York State (about 1/3 the population of the UK) has a cumulative total of 1700 deaths per million, and the UK is close to 600 per million. There are some differences between those populations, but it does seem there’s good evidence that things could have been much worse in the UK without relatively early social distancing.
- collyw 6y agoThe question then is why lockdowns were based on this model? Sweden demonstrated that it wasn't needed. Why are we still listening to Neil Ferguson when his track record is absolutely abysmal?
- matthewdgreen 6y agoThe reason is that the U.K. is not Sweden. Nobody knows why Sweden was so relatively mild, but the fact that the U.K. had a worse outcome even with a lockdown strongly indicates that their no-lockdown outcome would have looked more like NYC or Lombardy than Sweden.