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This article’s quoted experts think a return to normal could take as long as November 2021 or even a couple years: > Experts’ estimates of the timeline vary, b

This article’s quoted experts think a return to normal could take as long as November 2021 or even a couple years: > Experts’ estimates of the timeline vary, but there seems to be some agreement that the virus could be in decline and under control by the second half of 2021, and that society could see pre-Covid “normal” within two years. > “I’ve said November 2021,” predicts Zeke Emanuel, former Obama adviser and chair of the Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy at the University of Pennsylvania. “I think you’ll have enough herd immunity [in the U.S.] that we’ll have an unremitting decline.” Herd immunity is the point at which so many people are immune that the virus can no longer spread widely. Personally, given the IFR for those under 50 is incredibly low (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...), and IFR under 70 is roughly the same as the typical seasonal flu, I don’t think it makes sense to drag out a return to normal that long. Losing another year of our lives - a summer with family, a normal education for kids, necessary social interactions, is not something I can accept. Life involves risks all the time, even in simple acts like stepping outside our homes. And as a society we already accept that lives have a finite value, so this is a question of which tradeoffs we are OK with. Right now it seems like we are willing to sacrifice the lives of the young to protect the lives of the elderly. How do others feel about timelines for a return to normal that extend 1-2 years out?

dredmorbius 6y ago
How one feels about a truth generally has little weight on the validity of a truth. Tha's not always the case, notably in systems in which beliefs themselves form a feedback. In which case the salience is less that beliefs would invalidate the prediction as overly long, but rather that unbelief at population levels would instead extend the timespan and push back the endgame through a failure to take effective hygenic and preventive measures. IFR neglects long-term adverse effects, also notable.

dredmorbius 6y ago

How one feels about a truth generally has little weight on the validity of a truth. Tha's not always the case, notably in systems in which beliefs themselves form a feedback. In which case the salience is less that beliefs would invalidate the prediction as overly long, but rather that unbelief at population levels would instead extend the timespan and push back the endgame through a failure to take effective hygenic and preventive measures. IFR neglects long-term adverse effects, also notable.