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Priming is one of the least reproducible effects out there and lies literally at the core of the reproducibility crisis [1]. I'm going to call BS on claims of

by djaque 6y ago

Priming is one of the least reproducible effects out there and lies literally at the core of the reproducibility crisis [1]. I'm going to call BS on claims of some sort of spooky weaponization of it. Edit: To add necessary context for those unaware, TikTok's audience in the US is politically liberal. The buy out of Trump rally tickets a few months ago was organized there [2]. It's true that we should be talking about the security implications of foreign control over our social media platforms. It's also true that we should be concerned about a targeted ban (instead of, say, a general crackdown on foreign social media) on what amounts to a meetinghouse for Trump's critics by the Trump administration itself. [1] https://replicationindex.com/2017/02/02/reconstruction-of-a-train-wreck-how-priming-research-went-of-the-rails/ https://replicationindex.com/2017/02/02/reconstruction-of-a-... [2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2020/07/07/tiktok-users-try-to-sabotage-trumps-rally-attendance-again/#291c36331048 https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2020/07/07/tiktok-...

thesz 6y ago
To quote the link of yours: "Five years later, Kahneman’s concerns have been largely confirmed. Major studies in social priming research have failed to replicate and the replicability of results in social psychology is estimated to be only 25%" I cannot discern whether author says that social priming research has replicability of 25% or social psychology has replication success of 25% and priming research has even less. The scale at which TikTok operates is much larger than any studies that can be performed by a group of scientists. This is true for audience (or test subjects), amount of hardware used and for information gathered. The link you provided still allows for some replicable effects to be present. Effects that were hypothesized, planned for discovery and then tested and brought to the light of day. At the scale of TikTok, effects can be discovered without hypothesis first, just by using sheer analytical power available.
- johnday 6y ago
  The quote you pulled spells it out: - Social priming does not replicate; - Social psychology has a replicability rate of 25%.
  - thesz 6y ago
    Let me offer you other quote from different link [1] (Nature): "Equipped with more-rigorous statistical methods, researchers are finding that social-priming effects do exist, but seem to vary between people and are smaller than first thought, Papies says." [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03755-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03755-2 Effects do exist.
    - danShumway 6y ago
      > but seem to vary between people and are smaller than first thought, Papies says. She and others think that social priming might survive as a set of more modest, yet more rigorous, findings. You linked the full statement, and then focused in on only two words of that statement for your comment. What about the linked article makes us think that this is something that the US government has the authority to step in and ban? We should skirt both the 1st Amendment and the free market over a social theory that might survive as a set of modest findings? It's good that the courts are blocking this in the absence of a specific, credible threat. "Some effects do exist, but we don't really know what they are, and they're a lot more modest than the scare effects that people are familiar with" is not a specific, credible threat. The threat of allowing the US government to get comfortable exercising ever more invasive control over the free market for questionable reasons, to the point of turning off or banning widely used communication channels -- that's a much more tangible threat than what I'm seeing linked in your article.
      - thesz 6y ago
        I am not talking about dangers of US government banning some app or service. I am talking about about dangers of the very existence of that service ruled by what I consider quite unfriendly people. Unfriendly not to me personally, but to the way US operates. As usual, official justification and real reasons may be very different. The "security threat" may be direct and indirect. I tried to present a picture of indirect threat to the security of US.
        danShumway 6y ago
donkeyd 6y ago
> TikTok's audience in the US is politically liberal If anything, then that audience is a very interesting target for either: - trying to convert them to more conservative ideas, by feeding them with messages that play on their feelings - trying to get them to not vote, by discouraging it - trying to incite violence against the other group in order to destabilize the country Especially the last one is interesting for China. The second one has been (by their own word) effectively used by Cambridge Analytica in Trinidad to influence an election by discouraging young people to vote [0]. Imagine if there was an app, mostly used by impressionable teens and young adults, and you had unlimited access to the users of that app. [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omc-5zj70M0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omc-5zj70M0

by djaque 6y ago

thesz 6y ago

To quote the link of yours: "Five years later, Kahneman’s concerns have been largely confirmed. Major studies in social priming research have failed to replicate and the replicability of results in social psychology is estimated to be only 25%" I cannot discern whether author says that social priming research has replicability of 25% or social psychology has replication success of 25% and priming research has even less. The scale at which TikTok operates is much larger than any studies that can be performed by a group of scientists. This is true for audience (or test subjects), amount of hardware used and for information gathered. The link you provided still allows for some replicable effects to be present. Effects that were hypothesized, planned for discovery and then tested and brought to the light of day. At the scale of TikTok, effects can be discovered without hypothesis first, just by using sheer analytical power available.

johnday 6y ago
The quote you pulled spells it out: - Social priming does not replicate; - Social psychology has a replicability rate of 25%.
- thesz 6y ago
  Let me offer you other quote from different link [1] (Nature): "Equipped with more-rigorous statistical methods, researchers are finding that social-priming effects do exist, but seem to vary between people and are smaller than first thought, Papies says." [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03755-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03755-2 Effects do exist.
  - danShumway 6y ago
    > but seem to vary between people and are smaller than first thought, Papies says. She and others think that social priming might survive as a set of more modest, yet more rigorous, findings. You linked the full statement, and then focused in on only two words of that statement for your comment. What about the linked article makes us think that this is something that the US government has the authority to step in and ban? We should skirt both the 1st Amendment and the free market over a social theory that might survive as a set of modest findings? It's good that the courts are blocking this in the absence of a specific, credible threat. "Some effects do exist, but we don't really know what they are, and they're a lot more modest than the scare effects that people are familiar with" is not a specific, credible threat. The threat of allowing the US government to get comfortable exercising ever more invasive control over the free market for questionable reasons, to the point of turning off or banning widely used communication channels -- that's a much more tangible threat than what I'm seeing linked in your article.
    - thesz 6y ago
      I am not talking about dangers of US government banning some app or service. I am talking about about dangers of the very existence of that service ruled by what I consider quite unfriendly people. Unfriendly not to me personally, but to the way US operates. As usual, official justification and real reasons may be very different. The "security threat" may be direct and indirect. I tried to present a picture of indirect threat to the security of US.
      - danShumway 6y ago

donkeyd 6y ago

> TikTok's audience in the US is politically liberal If anything, then that audience is a very interesting target for either: - trying to convert them to more conservative ideas, by feeding them with messages that play on their feelings - trying to get them to not vote, by discouraging it - trying to incite violence against the other group in order to destabilize the country Especially the last one is interesting for China. The second one has been (by their own word) effectively used by Cambridge Analytica in Trinidad to influence an election by discouraging young people to vote [0]. Imagine if there was an app, mostly used by impressionable teens and young adults, and you had unlimited access to the users of that app. [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omc-5zj70M0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omc-5zj70M0