I've read quite a lot about these. We are very bad at predicting the implications of an event that has not happened yet. We can predict global warming because

I've read quite a lot about these. We are very bad at predicting the implications of an event that has not happened yet. We can predict global warming because it is already occuring and what we're doing is not much more advanced than a glorified linear extrapolation. What is important is the consequences, on ecosystems, on agriculture, on all the interconnected systems. We can only predict reliably that global warming might be a perturbation. But we can't predict the reliable consequences of far simpler events.