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We have sound theories for multiple extinction events in the Earth's past, we have the ability to model complex risks involving astronomy, climate, and biology
by justin66 6y ago
We have sound theories for multiple extinction events in the Earth's past, we have the ability to model complex risks involving astronomy, climate, and biology which will occur in the Earth's future... if you're naïve about future risks to an extent that invites comparison with ancient history, perhaps it's because you've chosen not to be well read on these matters.
- stephc_int13 6y agoI've read quite a lot about these. We are very bad at predicting the implications of an event that has not happened yet. We can predict global warming because it is already occuring and what we're doing is not much more advanced than a glorified linear extrapolation. What is important is the consequences, on ecosystems, on agriculture, on all the interconnected systems. We can only predict reliably that global warming might be a perturbation. But we can't predict the reliable consequences of far simpler events.