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As written, the twitter thread is basically augury. Fitting a curve does not make it true; the processes of science, reality, academic research, and human disc
by hwillis 6y ago
As written, the twitter thread is basically augury. Fitting a curve does not make it true; the processes of science, reality, academic research, and human discovery do not follow neat lines. They are messy. Even economics is a hell of a lot more complex than "logarithmic increases have linear returns". You need actual engineers and scientists doing research; "cumulative kWh" is just an extremely rough proxy.
There is value in plotting data like this: to dispel anecdotal notions of progress or stalls. Progress has been incremental for a long time. The future expectations are incremental. It's probably going to stay incremental for now. There is little evidence of a stall, or that Tesla suddenly tore down the walls of physics.