4 ms·

Battery prices are falling around 15-20% every couple of years for everyone not just Tesla. Tesla 3 year target is not much different from over all price declin

Battery prices are falling around 15-20% every couple of years for everyone not just Tesla. Tesla 3 year target is not much different from over all price declines https://www.statista.com/statistics/883118/global-lithium-ion-battery-pack-costs/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/883118/global-lithium-io...

Robotbeat 6y ago
Battery price declines are driven by volume. There's been a marked plateau in other electric car makers' volume in the United States, at least, so it makes sense there'd be a plateau in prices as well absent action by Tesla (or someone else) to increase volume.
- rsynnott 6y ago
  Where are you getting that? Global electric car sales, despite covid, are already higher for 2020 now than they were for the whole of 2019. If anything, Tesla’s sales look more plateau-y then the market as a whole.
  - Robotbeat 6y ago
    Speaking of the US.
    - rsynnott 6y ago
      That would only really be relevant if the US was the only market that existed (or if the industry was really balkanised, I suppose). As it stands, the US is the third largest electric car market, and proportionately shrinking fast; the behaviour of the US market isn’t super relevant to market dynamics as a whole. If the US market is stagnating but the global market is growing fast, the demand for batteries continues to grow fast. To be clear, I don’t think it’s at all inevitable that the US continues to stagnate, but even if it does, he global market should be expected to grow.
      - Robotbeat 6y ago
        True and a valid point when talking about overall price reductions of batteries, but Tesla is doing really well considering almost all the supports for electric cars have been removed, from removing federal EV credits (no extension), super low gas prices, and a general lack of urgency on addressing climate from a federal level. The US would be without industrial capacity for battery production, which would mean we'd be further behind the Wright's Law curve (as industrial knowledge and capacity isn't this fluid thing that can sprout up easily anywhere... industrial capacity can atrophy in a region, making it very difficult to catch up to the world).
  - jeffbee 6y ago
    Are you sure? According to this data, global EV sales volume was down annually in the first 6 months of 2020, down 28% for H1 2020 vs. H1 2019. https://www.ev-volumes.com/ https://www.ev-volumes.com/
    - rsynnott 6y ago
      Drawn ahead as of August: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-electric-car-sales-by-key-markets-2010-2020 https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-electr... Strong sales in July and August, particularly in Europe.
      - jeffbee 6y ago
        Do you happen to know if that 2020 bar is actual sales to date, or annualized?
Voloskaya 6y ago
This is adressed in the thread: > "Had Tesla not made an awesome and compelling electric vehicle, battery prices may not have fallen as quickly because battery production would have been lower." > "[Tesla] will [drive the cost down] itself and others will be brought along. " > "We believe the auto industry will follow Wright's Law for battery cost declines, but delayed relative to Tesla"

Robotbeat 6y ago

Battery price declines are driven by volume. There's been a marked plateau in other electric car makers' volume in the United States, at least, so it makes sense there'd be a plateau in prices as well absent action by Tesla (or someone else) to increase volume.

rsynnott 6y ago
Where are you getting that? Global electric car sales, despite covid, are already higher for 2020 now than they were for the whole of 2019. If anything, Tesla’s sales look more plateau-y then the market as a whole.
- Robotbeat 6y ago
  Speaking of the US.
  - rsynnott 6y ago
    That would only really be relevant if the US was the only market that existed (or if the industry was really balkanised, I suppose). As it stands, the US is the third largest electric car market, and proportionately shrinking fast; the behaviour of the US market isn’t super relevant to market dynamics as a whole. If the US market is stagnating but the global market is growing fast, the demand for batteries continues to grow fast. To be clear, I don’t think it’s at all inevitable that the US continues to stagnate, but even if it does, he global market should be expected to grow.
    - Robotbeat 6y ago
      True and a valid point when talking about overall price reductions of batteries, but Tesla is doing really well considering almost all the supports for electric cars have been removed, from removing federal EV credits (no extension), super low gas prices, and a general lack of urgency on addressing climate from a federal level. The US would be without industrial capacity for battery production, which would mean we'd be further behind the Wright's Law curve (as industrial knowledge and capacity isn't this fluid thing that can sprout up easily anywhere... industrial capacity can atrophy in a region, making it very difficult to catch up to the world).
- jeffbee 6y ago
  Are you sure? According to this data, global EV sales volume was down annually in the first 6 months of 2020, down 28% for H1 2020 vs. H1 2019. https://www.ev-volumes.com/ https://www.ev-volumes.com/
  - rsynnott 6y ago
    Drawn ahead as of August: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-electric-car-sales-by-key-markets-2010-2020 https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-electr... Strong sales in July and August, particularly in Europe.
    - jeffbee 6y ago
      Do you happen to know if that 2020 bar is actual sales to date, or annualized?

Voloskaya 6y ago

This is adressed in the thread: > "Had Tesla not made an awesome and compelling electric vehicle, battery prices may not have fallen as quickly because battery production would have been lower." > "[Tesla] will [drive the cost down] itself and others will be brought along. " > "We believe the auto industry will follow Wright's Law for battery cost declines, but delayed relative to Tesla"