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- Unprecedented access to information; - Instant high fidelity communication and work/business; - Private and ever-cheaper space flight; - True automation (i

by bserge 6y ago

- Unprecedented access to information; - Instant high fidelity communication and work/business; - Private and ever-cheaper space flight; - True automation (it's only the beginning of the 21st, I bet on automation hitting hard mid century); - AR/VR (which will likely become the escape of choice for much of the world later this century); - Renewable energy that most can afford (it's already realistic for everyone to be self-sufficient); - Viable artificial/grown organs (for use in medicine and food production); And more. It's already been a hell of a century. If your life is boring, it's most likely because it's easy. There's no lack of choice when it comes to excitement, but we're risk averse at the core. The media is full of over-exaggerated bad stuff because it's exciting to watch (and again, risk-free). I hope we don't fuck it up.

lotsofpulp 6y ago
> - Renewable energy that most can afford (it's already realistic for everyone to be self-sufficient); I agree with your comment except this one. I don’t see anything that has come close to the benefits of fossil fuels, and I don’t see the political will to tax fossil fuels sufficiently to curb consumption sufficiently to curb climate change. Any reduction of fossil fuel use in developed countries with the luxury of being able to spend more on less polluting sources of energy will be made up in increased consumption in developing countries.
- bserge 6y ago
  I was talking more about solar and wind installations, as well as battery tech and the low power consumption of modern tools. 20-30 years ago, if you wanted a stable ~3KW supply, you needed a generator and diesel/petrol. Lights, computers, power tools consumed an immense amount of power compared to today. Now you can have one turbine and several solar panels coupled with a battery bank and you have the same supply of electricity without burning anything. It can power your whole house and everything you own for decades. I'm a fan of decentralized energy production, though.
libraryofbabel 6y ago
I agree; life is easy and a little bit boring for more and more people in the 21st century, unless they specifically choose to do risky things. I think that is a very good thing. I also agree that the media tends to report on bad things and downplays progress. However, I think what is underreported is not the 21st century inventions you mention, which get media coverage, but rather deep long-term global health improvements that began in the 20th century and have been continuing since then: metrics like infant mortality, food security, life expectancy, the eradication of polio. A great source for this is: https://ourworldindata.org/ https://ourworldindata.org/ As for specific 21st century technologies, let’s take those you mention one by one: > Unprecedented access to information; Yes. Although this was the growth of the internet and the web, both late-20th century technologies. > - Instant high fidelity communication and work/business; Same as the first point. > - Private and ever-cheaper space flight; To do basically 20th-century things like putting satellites into orbit... but cheaper! I hope we do something genuinely new this century like going to Mars - but that’s some way off. > - True automation (it's only the beginning of the 21st, I bet on automation hitting hard mid century); You’ll need to be more specific but sounds like this isn’t here yet? I agree automation has been improving but again, it’s a long-term trend. > - AR/VR (which will likely become the escape of choice for much of the world later this century); Sure, although sounds like this is more about future promise than what we have now, which is a fun but niche entertainment. > - Renewable energy that most can afford (it's already realistic for everyone to be self-sufficient); This is good but... again 20th-century tech becoming better and cheaper. > - Viable artificial/grown organs (for use in medicine and food production); Promising research but still a way off from becoming a routine medical treatment. So... I think all of these things are great but, as I mentioned in another reply, they just don’t have the world-historical impact of key 20th century tech like the Haber-Bosch Process, or antibiotics, or powered flight, or effective birth control. I think we are in a phase where we’re mostly improving what we already have (which is great!). Maybe a novel 21st-century technology will come along with that kind of impact, but I don’t think it’s here yet. (Edited for formatting)

by bserge 6y ago

lotsofpulp 6y ago

> - Renewable energy that most can afford (it's already realistic for everyone to be self-sufficient); I agree with your comment except this one. I don’t see anything that has come close to the benefits of fossil fuels, and I don’t see the political will to tax fossil fuels sufficiently to curb consumption sufficiently to curb climate change. Any reduction of fossil fuel use in developed countries with the luxury of being able to spend more on less polluting sources of energy will be made up in increased consumption in developing countries.

bserge 6y ago
I was talking more about solar and wind installations, as well as battery tech and the low power consumption of modern tools. 20-30 years ago, if you wanted a stable ~3KW supply, you needed a generator and diesel/petrol. Lights, computers, power tools consumed an immense amount of power compared to today. Now you can have one turbine and several solar panels coupled with a battery bank and you have the same supply of electricity without burning anything. It can power your whole house and everything you own for decades. I'm a fan of decentralized energy production, though.

libraryofbabel 6y ago

I agree; life is easy and a little bit boring for more and more people in the 21st century, unless they specifically choose to do risky things. I think that is a very good thing. I also agree that the media tends to report on bad things and downplays progress. However, I think what is underreported is not the 21st century inventions you mention, which get media coverage, but rather deep long-term global health improvements that began in the 20th century and have been continuing since then: metrics like infant mortality, food security, life expectancy, the eradication of polio. A great source for this is: https://ourworldindata.org/ https://ourworldindata.org/ As for specific 21st century technologies, let’s take those you mention one by one: > Unprecedented access to information; Yes. Although this was the growth of the internet and the web, both late-20th century technologies. > - Instant high fidelity communication and work/business; Same as the first point. > - Private and ever-cheaper space flight; To do basically 20th-century things like putting satellites into orbit... but cheaper! I hope we do something genuinely new this century like going to Mars - but that’s some way off. > - True automation (it's only the beginning of the 21st, I bet on automation hitting hard mid century); You’ll need to be more specific but sounds like this isn’t here yet? I agree automation has been improving but again, it’s a long-term trend. > - AR/VR (which will likely become the escape of choice for much of the world later this century); Sure, although sounds like this is more about future promise than what we have now, which is a fun but niche entertainment. > - Renewable energy that most can afford (it's already realistic for everyone to be self-sufficient); This is good but... again 20th-century tech becoming better and cheaper. > - Viable artificial/grown organs (for use in medicine and food production); Promising research but still a way off from becoming a routine medical treatment. So... I think all of these things are great but, as I mentioned in another reply, they just don’t have the world-historical impact of key 20th century tech like the Haber-Bosch Process, or antibiotics, or powered flight, or effective birth control. I think we are in a phase where we’re mostly improving what we already have (which is great!). Maybe a novel 21st-century technology will come along with that kind of impact, but I don’t think it’s here yet. (Edited for formatting)