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For those who would like to delve a bit deeper into the Hinge of History, this is the link from the article and is well worth the read. It was submitted here 2

by chippy 6y ago

For those who would like to delve a bit deeper into the Hinge of History, this is the link from the article and is well worth the read. It was submitted here 2 days ago and got zero points! https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XXLf6FmWujkxna3E6/are-we-living-at-the-most-influential-time-in-history-1 https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XXLf6FmWujkxna3E6/... Its often a human mistake to think that right now is the most important time ever because it is literally the moment we are in. With the perspective of history and with the imagination for the future you can start to see how what we think is the most urgent things maybe not so, and you can see how small changes elsewhere might be the best thing for the future. It can inoculate you against being manipulated by urgency-based calls for action.

watwut 6y ago
> It can inoculate you against being manipulated by urgency-based calls for action. Perspective of history however does not show that being passive is universally what is needed more that if we wait, it gonna be alright. Now that current need is not urgent. I mean, not being the most important historical moment does not imply it is not important for us and those right after us. Generally we should seek to avoid those super important moments by working on issues before they get so bad.
- chippy 6y ago
  Agreed! It's one thing to be aware of rhetorical tricks of urgency and its another not to do anything. I think it's very telling that the post that started this whole thing off was on an Effective Altruism forum.
m-i-l 6y ago
> Its often a human mistake to think that right now is the most important time ever because it is literally the moment we are in. Whenever I ask my youngest child what their favourite toy is, more often than not it is the one they have just played with, or what their favourite book is, and it is the one they have most recently read. I suspect that our view of history is similar. Now is always the most important moment in time, whichever time now is.
mistermann 6y ago
> Its often a human mistake to think that right now is the most important time ever because it is literally the moment we are in. With the perspective of history and with the imagination for the future you can start to see how what we think is the most urgent things maybe not so, and you can see how small changes elsewhere might be the best thing for the future. I agree. Another form of cognition error is our tendency to conceptualize things in Boolean terms, such as whether: - now is the "most important time ever" (and therefore we should seriously consider doing something about it), or it isn't (and therefore no action is required) or - now is plausibly an extremely important time (and therefore we should should seriously consider doing something about it) On its face, this distinction may seem excessively pedantic and trivial, and it very well may be, but it also very well may not be. I believe that if one can manage to practice this sort of thinking skilfully, that it can help inoculate one from confusing heuristic predictions about reality, with objective reality itself (which seems to be an extremely common behavior regardless of internet forum).

by chippy 6y ago

watwut 6y ago

> It can inoculate you against being manipulated by urgency-based calls for action. Perspective of history however does not show that being passive is universally what is needed more that if we wait, it gonna be alright. Now that current need is not urgent. I mean, not being the most important historical moment does not imply it is not important for us and those right after us. Generally we should seek to avoid those super important moments by working on issues before they get so bad.

chippy 6y ago
Agreed! It's one thing to be aware of rhetorical tricks of urgency and its another not to do anything. I think it's very telling that the post that started this whole thing off was on an Effective Altruism forum.

m-i-l 6y ago

> Its often a human mistake to think that right now is the most important time ever because it is literally the moment we are in. Whenever I ask my youngest child what their favourite toy is, more often than not it is the one they have just played with, or what their favourite book is, and it is the one they have most recently read. I suspect that our view of history is similar. Now is always the most important moment in time, whichever time now is.

mistermann 6y ago

> Its often a human mistake to think that right now is the most important time ever because it is literally the moment we are in. With the perspective of history and with the imagination for the future you can start to see how what we think is the most urgent things maybe not so, and you can see how small changes elsewhere might be the best thing for the future. I agree. Another form of cognition error is our tendency to conceptualize things in Boolean terms, such as whether: - now is the "most important time ever" (and therefore we should seriously consider doing something about it), or it isn't (and therefore no action is required) or - now is plausibly an extremely important time (and therefore we should should seriously consider doing something about it) On its face, this distinction may seem excessively pedantic and trivial, and it very well may be, but it also very well may not be. I believe that if one can manage to practice this sort of thinking skilfully, that it can help inoculate one from confusing heuristic predictions about reality, with objective reality itself (which seems to be an extremely common behavior regardless of internet forum).