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Population x Fatality Rate will tell you how much it "costs" to achieve herd immunity. That also doesn't take into account long term impacts that are not fatal

Population x Fatality Rate will tell you how much it "costs" to achieve herd immunity. That also doesn't take into account long term impacts that are not fatal.

jMyles 6y ago
> Population x Fatality Rate will tell you how much it "costs" to achieve herd immunity. ...what? My comment was about risk-stratification. "Population x Fatality Rate" is the formula we are resigned to use because we're not doing risk-stratification. This is what Katz, Ioannidis, Gupta, Osterholm, etc. (it, many of the most trusted experts on this topic) have been saying all along, and being ignored not only in the hugely ignorant US response, but also in the more sophisticated ones. > That also doesn't take into account long term impacts that are not fatal. Yes, there are rare complications from all viruses that can cause long-term disease. But we're fighting a pandemic right now, so it's probably not time to focus on phenomena of rounding-error incidence and which are not unique to this virus.
djsumdog 6y ago
> That also doesn't take into account long term impacts that are not fatal This is the new narrative and it makes no sense. The largest impact of this virus are the elderly and they can get long term effects from any infection, bacterial or viral. I read the 60+ person UK case study on long term effects published out of Charlottesville and almost all the major conditions were in the elderly or high risk workers (possibly medial workers; the paper didn't say for privacy reasons). It's way too early to talk about "long term effects," when this hasn't even been around that long. Remember that 96% of fatalities in the US are people 55 and over, most of those in long-term care and retirement facilities. The areas that were hit the worst (Michigan, California, Kirkland/Seattle) were all cases of bad policy in regards to nursing homes.

Population x Fatality Rate will tell you how much it "costs" to achieve herd immunity. That also doesn't take into account long term impacts that are not fatal.

jMyles 6y ago

> Population x Fatality Rate will tell you how much it "costs" to achieve herd immunity. ...what? My comment was about risk-stratification. "Population x Fatality Rate" is the formula we are resigned to use because we're not doing risk-stratification. This is what Katz, Ioannidis, Gupta, Osterholm, etc. (it, many of the most trusted experts on this topic) have been saying all along, and being ignored not only in the hugely ignorant US response, but also in the more sophisticated ones. > That also doesn't take into account long term impacts that are not fatal. Yes, there are rare complications from all viruses that can cause long-term disease. But we're fighting a pandemic right now, so it's probably not time to focus on phenomena of rounding-error incidence and which are not unique to this virus.

djsumdog 6y ago

> That also doesn't take into account long term impacts that are not fatal This is the new narrative and it makes no sense. The largest impact of this virus are the elderly and they can get long term effects from any infection, bacterial or viral. I read the 60+ person UK case study on long term effects published out of Charlottesville and almost all the major conditions were in the elderly or high risk workers (possibly medial workers; the paper didn't say for privacy reasons). It's way too early to talk about "long term effects," when this hasn't even been around that long. Remember that 96% of fatalities in the US are people 55 and over, most of those in long-term care and retirement facilities. The areas that were hit the worst (Michigan, California, Kirkland/Seattle) were all cases of bad policy in regards to nursing homes.