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I skipped ice mining because the missions don’t require it as a prerequisite. The first teams on the first synod don’t have to succeed at it. They will learn w

I skipped ice mining because the missions don’t require it as a prerequisite. The first teams on the first synod don’t have to succeed at it. They will learn what does and doesn' work. Each succeeding synod they will get closer till they finally succeed. Every synod they will get new supplies and better equipment to address the failings of the previous. And if it takes too long, they will eventually get sent tankers to supply return trips.

nickik 6y ago
Without Ice mining or some way of getting water you are stuck on Mars. Its absolutely part of the core requirement. Check Elon presentation from 2016, its in there as one of the key things.
- valuearb 6y ago
  It’s a core requirement for return flights to Earth in the “Mars Direct” model that SpaceX has based its plan on. But the SpaceX plan doesn’t require the astronaut return on the first Synod, or on any fixed schedule. The first to land will have ice mining and in situ fuel generation equipment, but we have no idea if they will work, or work at a level that will generate enough fuel for return flights in reasonable time periods. Which is fine. Succeeding missions will bring equipment to address the shortcomings of the first, until they are producing fuel effectively for return missions. The first astronauts are unlikely to be able to return in the first two years, it might take ten. But they will happily sign up for this plan because it gets them to Mars decades sooner.
  - nickik 6y ago
    SpaceX plan is very, very, very different from "Mars Direct". It basically shares absolutely nothing of the architecture other then the idea that ISRU is important. And what Mars direct, ie transporting hydrogen to mars, will absolutely not work for SpaceX. > But the SpaceX plan doesn’t require the astronaut return on the first Synod, or on any fixed schedule. Very unlikely that SpaceX or NASA would leave anybody there for two terms in a row.

nickik 6y ago

Without Ice mining or some way of getting water you are stuck on Mars. Its absolutely part of the core requirement. Check Elon presentation from 2016, its in there as one of the key things.

valuearb 6y ago
It’s a core requirement for return flights to Earth in the “Mars Direct” model that SpaceX has based its plan on. But the SpaceX plan doesn’t require the astronaut return on the first Synod, or on any fixed schedule. The first to land will have ice mining and in situ fuel generation equipment, but we have no idea if they will work, or work at a level that will generate enough fuel for return flights in reasonable time periods. Which is fine. Succeeding missions will bring equipment to address the shortcomings of the first, until they are producing fuel effectively for return missions. The first astronauts are unlikely to be able to return in the first two years, it might take ten. But they will happily sign up for this plan because it gets them to Mars decades sooner.
- nickik 6y ago
  SpaceX plan is very, very, very different from "Mars Direct". It basically shares absolutely nothing of the architecture other then the idea that ISRU is important. And what Mars direct, ie transporting hydrogen to mars, will absolutely not work for SpaceX. > But the SpaceX plan doesn’t require the astronaut return on the first Synod, or on any fixed schedule. Very unlikely that SpaceX or NASA would leave anybody there for two terms in a row.