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> There can't be evidence of the cover up since the cover up is actually fictional. That's "proof", not "evidence". If you see someone holding a bloody knife,
by a1369209993 6y ago
> There can't be evidence of the cover up since the cover up is actually fictional.
That's "proof", not "evidence". If you see someone holding a bloody knife, that's evidence in favor of them having killed someone, even if turns that they didn't (and thus that the evidence was misleading).
Your prior would be the truth value you assign without knowing whether you've heard about the supposedly-covered-up thing. (Which is admittedly a hard epistemic state to be in for a significant length of time. Eg, compare: what is your prior that this question has a odd number of letters in it? Obviously about 0.5, but it's trivial to count them and force your epistemic state to near 0 or 1.)
- zepto 6y agoA prior is not based on ignorance of your own knowledge. My prior about the number of letters in the question is based on what I do know about what I don’t know. I know nobody has told me. I know the letters are not alternating in color. I know the letters are not in a grid. I know there are more letters than a quick visual would allow me to count - e.g. more than 8, etc.