4 ms·

"...as long as the stock market works." If the stock market truly works, it will reflect the underlying economy and its prospects. Right now, it is being proppe

"...as long as the stock market works." If the stock market truly works, it will reflect the underlying economy and its prospects. Right now, it is being propped up by the Fed (and other actors, like SoftBank), and does not reflect the underlying economy or its future prospects (at least as projected by most economists). That cannot be sustained indefinitely. But your general point is probably correct, based on the experience of the Great Recession. This study concluded that while all households lost about the same percentage of wealth, the wealthier households recovered more quickly: https://irle.berkeley.edu/files/2015/The-Rich-Got-Richer.pdf https://irle.berkeley.edu/files/2015/The-Rich-Got-Richer.pdf. The Economic Policy Institute concluded similarly that the bottom 80% was hit harder than the top 20% (https://www.epi.org/press/news_from_epi_th_great_recession_exacerbated_existing_wealth_disparities_in/ https://www.epi.org/press/news_from_epi_th_great_recession_e...).

robjan 6y ago
As long as the stock market works, the pricing represents long term growth rather than short term setbacks.
- vannevar 6y ago
  It represents projected long term growth. My point was that the long term employment outlook seems pretty bleak (e.g., https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56442#:~:text=CBO%20projects%20that%20from%202020,projected%20to%20average%206.1%20percent https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56442#:~:text=CBO%20projects..., https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-employment/u-s-employment-projected-to-increase-six-million-from-2019-to-2029-labor-department-idUSKBN25S5ZB https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-employment/u-...). So it's hard to see where the market is getting its long-term optimism. One possible answer is that it isn't long-term optimism at all, but a short-term expectation of continued government intervention prior to the November election.

robjan 6y ago

As long as the stock market works, the pricing represents long term growth rather than short term setbacks.

vannevar 6y ago
It represents projected long term growth. My point was that the long term employment outlook seems pretty bleak (e.g., https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56442#:~:text=CBO%20projects%20that%20from%202020,projected%20to%20average%206.1%20percent https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56442#:~:text=CBO%20projects..., https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-employment/u-s-employment-projected-to-increase-six-million-from-2019-to-2029-labor-department-idUSKBN25S5ZB https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-employment/u-...). So it's hard to see where the market is getting its long-term optimism. One possible answer is that it isn't long-term optimism at all, but a short-term expectation of continued government intervention prior to the November election.