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I see no indication that the post presents Covid-19 as fixed. In fact, it focuses purely on the economic effects of Covid, not Covid itself.

by jaydem 6y ago

mikepurvis 6y ago
It's implicit in the verbiage of us being in "recovery" that the worst is past, no more lockdowns are coming, etc, all of which are... debateable, especially where the US is concerned.
- bobthepanda 6y ago
  I believe the "recovery" being talked about is an economic one, not from the pandemic itself. Which is also still debatable, but there are tentative signs that there has been some uneven economic improvement; we passed a trough in US unemployment.
- gridlockd 6y ago
  Whether the worst is past or not, there is an ongoing economic recovery. Just look at the charts. If you believe that isn't going to last, you can short the market. Just be aware that you're betting against the capabilities of the Fed's printing press.
- dimva 6y ago
  I'd be very surprised if more lockdowns came. Lockdowns are useful in only 2 situations: 1. there's a new disease that is spreading rapidly through the population and you want to prevent the healthcare system from becoming overwhelmed while you figure out how to best reduce infection spread and provide treatment 2. you have a small number of cases and a short lockdown will bring the total to 0, which will allow you to fully re-open your economy with no restrictions (New Zealand) The US is never going to be in situation #2, and we know enough about how to manage the disease now that we aren't going to be in situation #1 again. Right now I live in Boulder, and the university is under lockdown because cases have increased 1000% in the past few weeks, but the rest of the city is operating normally (including indoor dining!) with a low rate of disease spread.
  - mikepurvis 6y ago
    > the university is under lockdown because cases have increased 1000% in the past few weeks This is exactly what I'm anticipating more of— localized lockdowns because politicians and others are unwilling to act on leading indicators and so need to overcompensate when it's obvious that things are past the point where they've already lost control.

I see no indication that the post presents Covid-19 as fixed. In fact, it focuses purely on the economic effects of Covid, not Covid itself.

by jaydem 6y ago

I see no indication that the post presents Covid-19 as fixed. In fact, it focuses purely on the economic effects of Covid, not Covid itself.

mikepurvis 6y ago

It's implicit in the verbiage of us being in "recovery" that the worst is past, no more lockdowns are coming, etc, all of which are... debateable, especially where the US is concerned.

bobthepanda 6y ago
I believe the "recovery" being talked about is an economic one, not from the pandemic itself. Which is also still debatable, but there are tentative signs that there has been some uneven economic improvement; we passed a trough in US unemployment.
gridlockd 6y ago
Whether the worst is past or not, there is an ongoing economic recovery. Just look at the charts. If you believe that isn't going to last, you can short the market. Just be aware that you're betting against the capabilities of the Fed's printing press.
dimva 6y ago
I'd be very surprised if more lockdowns came. Lockdowns are useful in only 2 situations: 1. there's a new disease that is spreading rapidly through the population and you want to prevent the healthcare system from becoming overwhelmed while you figure out how to best reduce infection spread and provide treatment 2. you have a small number of cases and a short lockdown will bring the total to 0, which will allow you to fully re-open your economy with no restrictions (New Zealand) The US is never going to be in situation #2, and we know enough about how to manage the disease now that we aren't going to be in situation #1 again. Right now I live in Boulder, and the university is under lockdown because cases have increased 1000% in the past few weeks, but the rest of the city is operating normally (including indoor dining!) with a low rate of disease spread.
- mikepurvis 6y ago
  > the university is under lockdown because cases have increased 1000% in the past few weeks This is exactly what I'm anticipating more of— localized lockdowns because politicians and others are unwilling to act on leading indicators and so need to overcompensate when it's obvious that things are past the point where they've already lost control.