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Your anecdotal evidence is contradicted by wider evidence. In particular the famous Benbow study [1] that established that even among the top percentile of the

Your anecdotal evidence is contradicted by wider evidence. In particular the famous Benbow study [1] that established that even among the top percentile of the population there are massive differences: the top quarter percentile (99.75-99.99) was 2-3 times more likely to have authored academic research later in life, and about 1.5x more likely to have attended postgrad education, to have gone for a STEM degree, to have gone for a PhD than the bottom quarter of the top percent (99.00-99.24). [1] https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/smpy/1992-benbow.pdf https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/smpy/1992-benbow.pdf

krastanov 6y ago
This is interesting, thanks for sharing it! It would take me some time to read it, but given that you seem the have already looked into this, I was wondering whether you have suggestion for a wider set of studies, a meta-study maybe. I am asking, because if I have to choose between my empirical observations (anecdotal as they are, given it is n=1 observers), and a single piece of research without followups, I do feel justified to stick to what I have seen myself. But I am open to be convinced otherwise.
krastanov 6y ago
To update on the sibling comment I posted, after reading this study, I think it is pretty flawed. They indeed have an interesting population they have chosen to test, but to claim that they are the 1% top performers is incredibly misleading. The other 99% of their peers were never tested in the same fashion, which leads to obvious sampling and bias problems. This special population was treated differently from the other 99% of students from the very start of the study, so there is no surprise that new internal dynamics will appear among them, simply by virtue of being observed and treated as a separate group. To start testing the validity of the claims in this paper a study needs to be performed where the strength of effect has to be considered, when comparing a similar one-percenter group and a larger ten-percenter group. My prediction is that the strength of effect would show only negligible differences, confirming my hunch that the special treatment[1] is what created the new subdivision in this new group. More reading material on this topic would certainly be interesting, if you have anything in mind. [1]: The special treatment in this paper being telling a kid "you are only a 7th grader, but you are as smart as a high schooler".

krastanov 6y ago

This is interesting, thanks for sharing it! It would take me some time to read it, but given that you seem the have already looked into this, I was wondering whether you have suggestion for a wider set of studies, a meta-study maybe. I am asking, because if I have to choose between my empirical observations (anecdotal as they are, given it is n=1 observers), and a single piece of research without followups, I do feel justified to stick to what I have seen myself. But I am open to be convinced otherwise.

krastanov 6y ago

To update on the sibling comment I posted, after reading this study, I think it is pretty flawed. They indeed have an interesting population they have chosen to test, but to claim that they are the 1% top performers is incredibly misleading. The other 99% of their peers were never tested in the same fashion, which leads to obvious sampling and bias problems. This special population was treated differently from the other 99% of students from the very start of the study, so there is no surprise that new internal dynamics will appear among them, simply by virtue of being observed and treated as a separate group. To start testing the validity of the claims in this paper a study needs to be performed where the strength of effect has to be considered, when comparing a similar one-percenter group and a larger ten-percenter group. My prediction is that the strength of effect would show only negligible differences, confirming my hunch that the special treatment[1] is what created the new subdivision in this new group. More reading material on this topic would certainly be interesting, if you have anything in mind. [1]: The special treatment in this paper being telling a kid "you are only a 7th grader, but you are as smart as a high schooler".