The argument I make is that jb775's assertion at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24586075 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24586075 ("People seem to fo

The argument I make is that jb775's assertion at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24586075 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24586075 ("People seem to forget that the expected total death count from day 1 was, and still is, expected to be the same no matter what actions taken") is wrong. I say it's wrong because months ago I heard arguments that models predicted that lowering the curve could also reduce total mortality. And I linked to that video to give evidence that this was part of the general discussion months ago. The fact that you disagree with that model, or argue that I need to give a stronger evidence for the current information we have, has no bearing on my point. Eg, when you write "I don't believe this is the situation right now" - that statement is based on knowledge you have now, not knowledge that people had on "day 1".