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Behaviors and outcomes rarely change, but history is driven by surprising events...? I admit that this juxtaposition of the listed rules confuses me. The first

Behaviors and outcomes rarely change, but history is driven by surprising events...? I admit that this juxtaposition of the listed rules confuses me. The first part/rule would seem to indicate that history is driven by predictable, probable, or otherwise bell-curvy events.

pdonis 6y ago
The author may have been thinking along similar lines to Shaw's aphorism, which goes something like: The reasonable man changes himself to fit the world; the unreasonable man persists in trying to change the world to fit himself; therefore all progress depends upon the unreasonable man.
watwut 6y ago
Civil rights movement was started by Rosa Park sitting on the bus. It was surprising big event. Most characters in that story kept going by same scripts as before, with only slight variations and only little bit of learning from previous experiences.
- skmurphy 6y ago
  I think it's much earlier. It should at least be dated from founding of NAACP in 1909. Rosa Parks was not a random person. she was elected Secretary of the Montgomery Alabama NAACP chapter in 1943.
- cobbzilla 6y ago
  Claudette Colvin [1] did “the bus refusal” nine months earlier. Alas Claudette was not a sympathetic public figure (she had an affair with a married white man), so the NAACP engineered a re-enactment with Rosa. I think what Colvin did took much more bravery. And in providing inspiration for Parks’s actions, she’s an under-appreciated hero of the civil rights movement. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claudette_Colvin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claudette_Colvin
  - watwut 6y ago
    I mean, Colvin did not had to pay price Parks paid. And Parks knew what it will cost. And no Parks sit in was not engineered by NAACP. It was her own decision at the moment. It would be pretty hard to stage that situation. It even seem she had legal right to stay sit, the driver did not had to press for charges and the bus did not had to be full... Besides, the massive protests after surprised everyone including Parks. And someone else staying too just proves that people were repeating patterns. People were troubling busses more often to.
    - cobbzilla 6y ago
      You seem misinformed. Did you read the article? What "price" are you referring to, that Colvin didn't pay but Parks did?
      - watwut 6y ago
        Loosing the job and impossibility to get new employment in the city. She lost all white clients except one which was big hit financially. Being very low on money having to accept help. Being hated in the city. Getting harassment and tons of hate calls. Those impacting her husbands mental health a lot. Effectively life became much harder for her and later she had to move away. Neither her nor her husband nor her mom gained anything personal but lost a lot. Colvim herself once commented on that too and on pressure she seen Parks under after. She was ressentful they did not trusted her, but glad she was not in Parkers place. They knew each other. It is not like Colvin and Parks were first blacks defiant in the bus. But Parks was using Colvins story for months and Colvin joined her group.
        cobbzilla 6y ago
        You basically described circumstances that applied to both women. They both wound up moving North due to the extreme negative pressure. I fail to see your point. > It is not like Colvin and Parks were first blacks defiant in the bus. But Parks was using Colvins story for months and Colvin joined her group. Citation requested.
- dredmorbius 6y ago
  This better fits the "compelling narrative" rather than "surprising events" mode. Perhaps combining them. The right story, told the right way, at the right time.
  - watwut 6y ago
    Who was not surprised by bus boycott happening? Because i read about that lately and Parks herself was long term frustrated by passivity of general public. Yes she was activist, but one of few and precisely her experience of activism make her not expect anything big happening. She experienced failure after failure, hoping merely for next generation to achieve something.
    - dredmorbius 6y ago
      The boycott itself, and its success, was a historical supprise. The Rosa Parks refusal was storytelling which lead to that surprise.
      - watwut 6y ago
        How was parks refusal storytelling?
        dredmorbius 6y ago
        https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24588363 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24588363
        watwut 6y ago
        That does not make Parks refusal story telling at all? That is just somebody else also defiantly refusing to stand up? No part of Claudette story contradits anything I wrote. No part of detailed Parks story co tradicta none of that either. Neither of the two were the first black arrested on the bus. Arrests, beatings, occasional murders or rape happened before the two. The segregation was not keeping itself magically before. But yes, Parks and also women political council and also NAACP were all influenced by Colvin (who became member of Parks youth group). And Colvin was influenced by priors too.
aliceryhl 6y ago
The history thing is the thesis of a book I'm reading right now called The Black Swan by Taleb.

pdonis 6y ago

The author may have been thinking along similar lines to Shaw's aphorism, which goes something like: The reasonable man changes himself to fit the world; the unreasonable man persists in trying to change the world to fit himself; therefore all progress depends upon the unreasonable man.

watwut 6y ago

Civil rights movement was started by Rosa Park sitting on the bus. It was surprising big event. Most characters in that story kept going by same scripts as before, with only slight variations and only little bit of learning from previous experiences.

skmurphy 6y ago
I think it's much earlier. It should at least be dated from founding of NAACP in 1909. Rosa Parks was not a random person. she was elected Secretary of the Montgomery Alabama NAACP chapter in 1943.
cobbzilla 6y ago
Claudette Colvin [1] did “the bus refusal” nine months earlier. Alas Claudette was not a sympathetic public figure (she had an affair with a married white man), so the NAACP engineered a re-enactment with Rosa. I think what Colvin did took much more bravery. And in providing inspiration for Parks’s actions, she’s an under-appreciated hero of the civil rights movement. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claudette_Colvin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claudette_Colvin
- watwut 6y ago
  I mean, Colvin did not had to pay price Parks paid. And Parks knew what it will cost. And no Parks sit in was not engineered by NAACP. It was her own decision at the moment. It would be pretty hard to stage that situation. It even seem she had legal right to stay sit, the driver did not had to press for charges and the bus did not had to be full... Besides, the massive protests after surprised everyone including Parks. And someone else staying too just proves that people were repeating patterns. People were troubling busses more often to.
  - cobbzilla 6y ago
    You seem misinformed. Did you read the article? What "price" are you referring to, that Colvin didn't pay but Parks did?
    - watwut 6y ago
      Loosing the job and impossibility to get new employment in the city. She lost all white clients except one which was big hit financially. Being very low on money having to accept help. Being hated in the city. Getting harassment and tons of hate calls. Those impacting her husbands mental health a lot. Effectively life became much harder for her and later she had to move away. Neither her nor her husband nor her mom gained anything personal but lost a lot. Colvim herself once commented on that too and on pressure she seen Parks under after. She was ressentful they did not trusted her, but glad she was not in Parkers place. They knew each other. It is not like Colvin and Parks were first blacks defiant in the bus. But Parks was using Colvins story for months and Colvin joined her group.
      - cobbzilla 6y ago
        You basically described circumstances that applied to both women. They both wound up moving North due to the extreme negative pressure. I fail to see your point. > It is not like Colvin and Parks were first blacks defiant in the bus. But Parks was using Colvins story for months and Colvin joined her group. Citation requested.
dredmorbius 6y ago
This better fits the "compelling narrative" rather than "surprising events" mode. Perhaps combining them. The right story, told the right way, at the right time.
- watwut 6y ago
  Who was not surprised by bus boycott happening? Because i read about that lately and Parks herself was long term frustrated by passivity of general public. Yes she was activist, but one of few and precisely her experience of activism make her not expect anything big happening. She experienced failure after failure, hoping merely for next generation to achieve something.
  - dredmorbius 6y ago
    The boycott itself, and its success, was a historical supprise. The Rosa Parks refusal was storytelling which lead to that surprise.
    - watwut 6y ago
      How was parks refusal storytelling?
      - dredmorbius 6y ago
        https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24588363 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24588363
        watwut 6y ago
        That does not make Parks refusal story telling at all? That is just somebody else also defiantly refusing to stand up? No part of Claudette story contradits anything I wrote. No part of detailed Parks story co tradicta none of that either. Neither of the two were the first black arrested on the bus. Arrests, beatings, occasional murders or rape happened before the two. The segregation was not keeping itself magically before. But yes, Parks and also women political council and also NAACP were all influenced by Colvin (who became member of Parks youth group). And Colvin was influenced by priors too.

aliceryhl 6y ago

The history thing is the thesis of a book I'm reading right now called The Black Swan by Taleb.