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This seems to assume all of the excess deaths are directly attributable to Covid-19, but shouldn't we consider the possibility that our reaction to Covid-19 cou

This seems to assume all of the excess deaths are directly attributable to Covid-19, but shouldn't we consider the possibility that our reaction to Covid-19 could also play a role, things like: generally increased levels of stress, suicide rate, elderly more depressed due to no in-person visitors, less exercise?

pwned1 6y ago
And lots of people avoiding the doctor’s office or hospital because they are afraid to go.
kalleboo 6y ago
In some places, excess death is now lower than recent average years, probably due to less commuting and other dangerous activities.
mcgt 6y ago
I'm looking into this gap right now. In the US for example, deaths from dementia so far this year are much higher than the average for the past five years (up until ~Aug 15). There's also a not insignificant amount of notes saying deaths are being underreported in a lot of jurisdictions. Pretty much across the board jumps for most major causes of death. Haven't pulled in anything on suicides yet. Interestingly though, deaths from lower respiratory disease are down for all regions of the US. I wondered how much that has to do with less traffic/air pollution which might otherwise aggravate that?
- thu2111 6y ago
  Isn't it more likely that deaths from other kinds of respiratory diseases are being re-classified as COVID?
  - mcgt 6y ago
    My thoughts were the same, but nothing I've seen (yet) would suggest that. Though deaths by dementia seem to be up far above the 5 year average (especially in the Southern US). Total mortality up to Aug 15 is up at least 580k over the 5 year average from what I'm seeing right now, fwiw. Probably will post it here on HN once I've got everything tied together.
fred_is_fred 6y ago
If anything I think most people (at least where I live in Colorado) are getting significantly more exercise. Everyone is outside biking, hiking, running, paddling, fishing, etc. They may not be doing a Pilates class or on a treadmill, but are exercising none the less. And with no endless stream of school events and kids sports, I can go hiking every day after work if I want. I've never spent this much time outside since I was probably 12 years old.

pwned1 6y ago

And lots of people avoiding the doctor’s office or hospital because they are afraid to go.

kalleboo 6y ago

In some places, excess death is now lower than recent average years, probably due to less commuting and other dangerous activities.

mcgt 6y ago

I'm looking into this gap right now. In the US for example, deaths from dementia so far this year are much higher than the average for the past five years (up until ~Aug 15). There's also a not insignificant amount of notes saying deaths are being underreported in a lot of jurisdictions. Pretty much across the board jumps for most major causes of death. Haven't pulled in anything on suicides yet. Interestingly though, deaths from lower respiratory disease are down for all regions of the US. I wondered how much that has to do with less traffic/air pollution which might otherwise aggravate that?

thu2111 6y ago
Isn't it more likely that deaths from other kinds of respiratory diseases are being re-classified as COVID?
- mcgt 6y ago
  My thoughts were the same, but nothing I've seen (yet) would suggest that. Though deaths by dementia seem to be up far above the 5 year average (especially in the Southern US). Total mortality up to Aug 15 is up at least 580k over the 5 year average from what I'm seeing right now, fwiw. Probably will post it here on HN once I've got everything tied together.

fred_is_fred 6y ago

If anything I think most people (at least where I live in Colorado) are getting significantly more exercise. Everyone is outside biking, hiking, running, paddling, fishing, etc. They may not be doing a Pilates class or on a treadmill, but are exercising none the less. And with no endless stream of school events and kids sports, I can go hiking every day after work if I want. I've never spent this much time outside since I was probably 12 years old.