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10 years? No. Batteries are killing hydrogen on scale and cost improvement. We may already have reached a "curve superiority" by batteries much like DRAM vs MR
by AtlasBarfed 6y ago
10 years? No.
Batteries are killing hydrogen on scale and cost improvement. We may already have reached a "curve superiority" by batteries much like DRAM vs MRAM, as in MRAM may have had overall potential superiority to DRAM, but was way too late to the party to beat out DRAM's constant incremental improvements. The lead on economies of scale mean and allocation of research means that hydrogen cannot "catch up".
Even if massive investment in hydrogen started, presumably in transportation, it is probably 5-8 years from reaching the point Tesla was with the release of the first Model S.
Which cedes Tesla and battery tech another 5-8 years of "main curve" improvement. Consider that the great leap of lithium metal/solid state seems an almost guarantee in 10 years time, and likely 5 years.