4 ms·

Fun. I see at least 3 scenarios: 1) Trump wins outright. I don't have a good feel for the probability, but I don't think it's zero. 2) Trump contests the ele

Fun. I see at least 3 scenarios: 1) Trump wins outright. I don't have a good feel for the probability, but I don't think it's zero. 2) Trump contests the election, e.g. in the manner outlined in the linked article. At the very least, this will delay the next administration, maybe give the opportunity to install more judges and tear down some more Obama related laws & regulations. 3) same as 2 but shortlived. Trump hands over power but continues after the election to run interference and whip up unrest for the next 4 years, maybe paving the road for more Trumps to ascend to the presidency. I believe 3) is the most likely scenario, and probably the most damaging to the US.

W-Stool 6y ago
IMHO you are spot on. I'd put money on your third scenario.
rvz 6y ago
You might be forgiven to say 3) is the most obvious conclusion, but 4 years ago, we all thought that Clinton would win didn't we? and look what happened. I suggest you should recalibrate your crystal ball once again.
AnimalMuppet 6y ago
Traditionally, ex-presidents just shut up and go away, at least with respect to politics. Obama has done so less than previous presidents. I find it almost impossible to believe that Trump will just shut up and go away. He's going to be stirring things up, attacking the next president (Biden or the 2024 winner), yelling about how much better he would have done it and how the new president should have done things. That's bad. What's worse is the effect he's going to have on the next round of Republican primaries, pushing them to run a Trump-like candidate in 2024. The Republican Party can't heal until they learn to ignore Trump, even after he's out of office.
- DenisM 6y ago
  > how much better he would have done it and how the new president should have done things. That's bad So if a man with experience of running a country expresses opinions about running that same country that would be bad in your book?
  - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
    If a man with experience who is out of office has public criticism for how a person who is currently in office is running their office, that is, in general, bad. (Same as with any job. If the old coach at the college is publicly criticizing how the new coach calls plays, that's rather inappropriate.)
    - DenisM 6y ago
      Is it bad that Obama criticized Trump? https://www.pbs.org/weta/washingtonweek/web-video/former-president-barack-obama-criticizes-president-trump https://www.pbs.org/weta/washingtonweek/web-video/former-pre...

W-Stool 6y ago

IMHO you are spot on. I'd put money on your third scenario.

rvz 6y ago

You might be forgiven to say 3) is the most obvious conclusion, but 4 years ago, we all thought that Clinton would win didn't we? and look what happened. I suggest you should recalibrate your crystal ball once again.

AnimalMuppet 6y ago

Traditionally, ex-presidents just shut up and go away, at least with respect to politics. Obama has done so less than previous presidents. I find it almost impossible to believe that Trump will just shut up and go away. He's going to be stirring things up, attacking the next president (Biden or the 2024 winner), yelling about how much better he would have done it and how the new president should have done things. That's bad. What's worse is the effect he's going to have on the next round of Republican primaries, pushing them to run a Trump-like candidate in 2024. The Republican Party can't heal until they learn to ignore Trump, even after he's out of office.

DenisM 6y ago
> how much better he would have done it and how the new president should have done things. That's bad So if a man with experience of running a country expresses opinions about running that same country that would be bad in your book?
- AnimalMuppet 6y ago
  If a man with experience who is out of office has public criticism for how a person who is currently in office is running their office, that is, in general, bad. (Same as with any job. If the old coach at the college is publicly criticizing how the new coach calls plays, that's rather inappropriate.)
  - DenisM 6y ago
    Is it bad that Obama criticized Trump? https://www.pbs.org/weta/washingtonweek/web-video/former-president-barack-obama-criticizes-president-trump https://www.pbs.org/weta/washingtonweek/web-video/former-pre...