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FWIW here's my take: - No one voting for Hillary in 2016 is voting for Trump in 2020 - People voting for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein in 2016 are either not vot

FWIW here's my take: - No one voting for Hillary in 2016 is voting for Trump in 2020 - People voting for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein in 2016 are either not voting or voting for Biden in 2020 - Democrats who didn't vote in 2016 out of protest for Bernie Sanders not getting the nomination are either not voting again or they're voting for Biden in 2020 - People who voted for Trump in 2016 fall into three camps: they're either voting for Trump in 2020, voting for Biden in 2020, or not voting at all. All in all it looks like Biden is going to get more votes than Hillary did in 2016 and Trump is going to get fewer votes than he did in 2016. Trump's incredible campaign gaffe in Minnesota has cost him that swing state and is swinging the rest of the swing states of the U.S. Midwest, which is where I live, to Biden. Bottom line - Biden's path to the White House appears to be less shaky than Trump's path to the White House. However, Trump has made comments indicating that he's willing to make this election cycle very ugly and we may be looking at our first non-peaceful transition of power in American history. I'm no political science expert or anything, that's just how things appear to me.

verdverm 6y ago
Your first point is off, people have switched camps to the right since last election, despite how hard this may seem to believe. They look at how childish the left has become and have decided the right is less evil.
- charlesu 6y ago
  > They look at how childish the left has become and have decided the right is less evil. The left is childish? President of the United States literally tweets gifs of himself beating up CNN on Twitter. We live in differently realities. I see one side that shows some semblance of decorum and another that is basically the political equivalent of the Joker but without the charisma and philosophical consistency.
  - SuoDuanDao 6y ago
    >We live in differently realities. That sums it up doesn't it? Both sides only see the worst the other side has to offer. It feeds the algorithm for it to be so. But that illusion is actually quite fragile and hard to maintain, and the other side has an obvious incentive to shatter it by any means available. I would guess a lot of people, on both sides, will switch votes this time around.
    - pjc50 6y ago
      You can generally see the worst the republican side has to offer directly from their own news media and the Presidential twitter account.
  - justanotheranon 6y ago
    this shows how dangerous the Left Wing filter bubble has become. undecided voters dont care about a 2 year old funny meme gag video. they care about 100+ days of nightly riots in dozens of cities. they care about police officers being shot by assassins and ordinary home owners being assaulted by mobs with impunity. they care about sky rocketing homeless, murders, burglaries and robberies. they care about millions of small businesses being permanently closed and tens of millions of unemployed. just like in 2016, the Left drank its own kool-aid and believed in its own filter bubble propaganda and got blind sided by the freight train of Reality. Trump will win again, and the Left will be shocked and cry again because they walled themselves off from the real world.
    - dang 6y ago
      We've banned this account for using HN for political and ideological battle. That's not what this site is for, regardless of which politics you favor or oppose. More explanation here, and links to plenty more, if anyone wants it: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24582668 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24582668. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- rswskg 6y ago
  The burning of american cities by antifa could not have played into trumps hands any better. I almost wonder if right wing organisations are behind them sometimes.
  - pjc50 6y ago
    > I almost wonder if right wing organisations are behind them sometimes There's extensive discussion of "provocateurs". Very little is ever proved, although at one point there was an attempt to build a crowdsourced facial recognition database of police to spot undercover agents.
  - throwaway123x2 6y ago
    What burning? I asked my friend in Portland about how the anarchy in Portland is, and he responded, "Eh, a bunch of people are pissed in about one city block." Here in Chicago, things are completely fine and have been except for the day or two after George Floyd was murdered.
    - ThrowawayR2 6y ago
      Reality doesn't matter all that much. The news has played up the violence to get viewers and ad impressions because that is its nature and its lifeblood. That can be easily be given the right spin to sway voters on the fence away from the left. Had the protests been purely peaceful, it would've been looked really good for the left. As it stands, it's been a heaven-sent blessing for the right to use as propaganda instead.
    - justanotheranon 6y ago
      40 people being shot every weekend in Chicago is "fine"? Murders are up 55% in Chicago this year. CPD clearance rate for solving murders is 45%. citation: https://www.google.com/amp/s/chicago.suntimes.com/platform/amp/city-hall/2020/9/23/21452578/chicago-violence-prevention-police-budget-cpd-defund-cred-arne-duncan-youth-roseland https://www.google.com/amp/s/chicago.suntimes.com/platform/a... that is not "fine." the Left choose to ignore reality and see a happy little tree illusory version of reality. that is why the Left keep losing elections.
supernintendo 6y ago
It's sad that this post is getting downvoted but just goes to show that the conservatives of Hacker News are unable to grapple with even a milquetoast political analysis such as this.
lucasmullens 6y ago
I think you're mostly getting downvoted for speaking in certainties. That's a reasonable take if you said "most" in front of each bullet, but claims of "no one" only take a single person for the claim to be wrong.

verdverm 6y ago

Your first point is off, people have switched camps to the right since last election, despite how hard this may seem to believe. They look at how childish the left has become and have decided the right is less evil.

charlesu 6y ago
> They look at how childish the left has become and have decided the right is less evil. The left is childish? President of the United States literally tweets gifs of himself beating up CNN on Twitter. We live in differently realities. I see one side that shows some semblance of decorum and another that is basically the political equivalent of the Joker but without the charisma and philosophical consistency.
- SuoDuanDao 6y ago
  >We live in differently realities. That sums it up doesn't it? Both sides only see the worst the other side has to offer. It feeds the algorithm for it to be so. But that illusion is actually quite fragile and hard to maintain, and the other side has an obvious incentive to shatter it by any means available. I would guess a lot of people, on both sides, will switch votes this time around.
  - pjc50 6y ago
    You can generally see the worst the republican side has to offer directly from their own news media and the Presidential twitter account.
- justanotheranon 6y ago
  this shows how dangerous the Left Wing filter bubble has become. undecided voters dont care about a 2 year old funny meme gag video. they care about 100+ days of nightly riots in dozens of cities. they care about police officers being shot by assassins and ordinary home owners being assaulted by mobs with impunity. they care about sky rocketing homeless, murders, burglaries and robberies. they care about millions of small businesses being permanently closed and tens of millions of unemployed. just like in 2016, the Left drank its own kool-aid and believed in its own filter bubble propaganda and got blind sided by the freight train of Reality. Trump will win again, and the Left will be shocked and cry again because they walled themselves off from the real world.
  - dang 6y ago
    We've banned this account for using HN for political and ideological battle. That's not what this site is for, regardless of which politics you favor or oppose. More explanation here, and links to plenty more, if anyone wants it: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24582668 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24582668. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
rswskg 6y ago
The burning of american cities by antifa could not have played into trumps hands any better. I almost wonder if right wing organisations are behind them sometimes.
- pjc50 6y ago
  > I almost wonder if right wing organisations are behind them sometimes There's extensive discussion of "provocateurs". Very little is ever proved, although at one point there was an attempt to build a crowdsourced facial recognition database of police to spot undercover agents.
- throwaway123x2 6y ago
  What burning? I asked my friend in Portland about how the anarchy in Portland is, and he responded, "Eh, a bunch of people are pissed in about one city block." Here in Chicago, things are completely fine and have been except for the day or two after George Floyd was murdered.
  - ThrowawayR2 6y ago
    Reality doesn't matter all that much. The news has played up the violence to get viewers and ad impressions because that is its nature and its lifeblood. That can be easily be given the right spin to sway voters on the fence away from the left. Had the protests been purely peaceful, it would've been looked really good for the left. As it stands, it's been a heaven-sent blessing for the right to use as propaganda instead.
  - justanotheranon 6y ago
    40 people being shot every weekend in Chicago is "fine"? Murders are up 55% in Chicago this year. CPD clearance rate for solving murders is 45%. citation: https://www.google.com/amp/s/chicago.suntimes.com/platform/amp/city-hall/2020/9/23/21452578/chicago-violence-prevention-police-budget-cpd-defund-cred-arne-duncan-youth-roseland https://www.google.com/amp/s/chicago.suntimes.com/platform/a... that is not "fine." the Left choose to ignore reality and see a happy little tree illusory version of reality. that is why the Left keep losing elections.

supernintendo 6y ago

It's sad that this post is getting downvoted but just goes to show that the conservatives of Hacker News are unable to grapple with even a milquetoast political analysis such as this.

lucasmullens 6y ago

I think you're mostly getting downvoted for speaking in certainties. That's a reasonable take if you said "most" in front of each bullet, but claims of "no one" only take a single person for the claim to be wrong.