11 ms·

As an outsider (from a different continent), it doesn't seem at all likely that there is a chance for Biden winning. It probably looks the same from where Zuck

by loxs 6y ago

As an outsider (from a different continent), it doesn't seem at all likely that there is a chance for Biden winning. It probably looks the same from where Zuck is sitting. We might, of course, both be wrong :)

Cederfjard 6y ago
I think that’s a take without merit. It’s certainly not clear-cut. Here’s The Economist and FiveThirtyEight both saying that they favor Biden to win (at the time of my posting this): https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
- jcims 6y ago
  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
  - pirocks 6y ago
    Not sure what your saying. But if your saying they got it wrong they gave trump a 25+% of winning. Things with a 1/4th probability happen all the time.
    - scarmig 6y ago
      Sure, they happen, but how often? One in hundred times?
      - shadowgovt 6y ago
        Things with a 1-in-4 probability happen about 1-in-4 times.
        scarmig 6y ago
        Bad joke, apparently.
        shadowgovt 6y ago
        Aww, you got me. :) https://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2006/08/25/armadeaddon-grim-exodus https://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2006/08/25/armadeaddon-gr...
  - bryanlarsen 6y ago
    Is there a point? 538 showed Trump having a 1 in 4 chance of winning the election on the day of the election. Flipping a coin twice and getting two heads is not particularly surprising. 538 is showing Trump of having a 1 in 5 chance of winning 2020: not favored but very possible. But if you dig deeper, the main reason that his odds are that high is that there's lots of time for stuff to happen between now and November 4th. If the election were to be held today the odds would be 1 in 19 for Trump. edit: rereading it sounds like I'm discrediting the 1 in 5 forecast. Not at all, I think they're right about the 1 in 5. There are two main reasons to go from 1 in 19 to 1 in 5: - future unknown events. Like Comey in 2016. Some of these events will help Biden and some Trump, but if they're random they will pull the odds toward the middle. - when asked who would better handle the economy, Trump has the lead over Biden. Elections have always been about the economy, but 2020 hasn't been so far. Reversion to the norm is always a good guess. I'm badly summarizing 538 in my comments, this is not original thought.
- loxs 6y ago
  Yeah, and probably Zuck has better data than both ;)
pjc50 6y ago
My money is on Biden receiving the most votes in the popular vote, but Trump still being in power next year, and a huge amount of litigation and riots in the meantime. (Not sure why this got downvoted; Clinton won the popular vote last time, I see no reason that won't happen again?)
- ezzzzz 6y ago
  Yeah, chiming in from the Mid-West, the Trump base is out in full force. Lots of Trump signs in yards (with varying degrees of offensive slogans), seeing Trump flags flying from the back of pickup truck beds and yards everywhere... one gets the opposite impression. Whether the 'silent-majority' is truly the majority or actually the 'extremely vocal minority' will decide the election. However, there is no denying Trump has a very energized base out here. I have a feeling the Trump will lose the popular vote, but as 2016 has shown, mid America will be the deciding factor. The other troubling thing, as related to the article, is the huge role conspiracy theories like Qanon will play in this election. Just as the article describes, through FB's algorithm, people engaged with traditionally left-leaning communities (non-GMO, alternative medicine etc) are getting sucked into this madness. FB's work to suppress this is not only too little, too late, it also creates a self-enforcing narrative that 'the elites' are actively engaged in a cover-up. It's pretty scary stuff. Not to mention, the cognitive dissonance is only amplified by civil-unrest and a global pandemic. The psyche of the body politic has been absolutely ravaged by the events of 2020, creating a perfect-storm for the unexpected to occur.
  - shadowgovt 6y ago
    The midwest likes the Republican candidate, but the entire Midwest gets a the same number of electoral college votes as, what, eight or nine coastal states?
    - ezzzzz 6y ago
      I should have included the South in my assessment, when you have states like Texas and Florida with 2nd and 3rd most (tie) amount of electoral votes, not forgetting 'swing' states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan that have a lot of pull. The middle of the US, and the East Coast South of the Mason-Dixon line is solid red. Gerrymandering has made it so even states like Georgia with a majority African-American population concentrated within congressional districts with enough political power to theoretically do something (Atlanta) will likely never flip blue (assuming said population were to vote blue). Same story where I live in southern Ohio. It's pretty sad. I think the electoral college needs to go away, but I doubt I'll ever see it in my lifetime. Hate to be a bummer on this, just tempering my own expectations.
secondcoming 6y ago
Unfortunately you'll be downvoted to hell once the US west coast gets out of bed.
- C1sc0cat 6y ago
  Yeh I kind of groked that but when you get Cindy McCain and previous Republican Presidents endorsing Biden. I still maintain that business leaders and journalists have a lot to answer for the rise of far right demagogues that are damaging both Us citizens and pose a threat to world stability.
  - mythrwy 6y ago
    Seems like those folks endorsing Biden might be a signal that something is wrong with the Biden camp to people who actually want change.
    - C1sc0cat 6y ago
      People who need to understand that winning and replacing the incumbent is the only priority.
    - pjc50 6y ago
      Biden is the "things don't get worse" candidate. Positive change is simply not on the agenda.
      - mrguyorama 6y ago
        If you wanted positive change this time you should have voted for positive change harder last time but alas, apparently people just stayed home instead. Nothing Trump has done has truly been a surprise. We knew his brand of bullshit and grifting from the beginning, and warned our fellow countrymen and women that this is what would happen. Apparently that just wasn't good enough for some people, so now we are in a desperate fight to prevent the absurd backslide of the US
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
taylodl 6y ago
FWIW here's my take: - No one voting for Hillary in 2016 is voting for Trump in 2020 - People voting for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein in 2016 are either not voting or voting for Biden in 2020 - Democrats who didn't vote in 2016 out of protest for Bernie Sanders not getting the nomination are either not voting again or they're voting for Biden in 2020 - People who voted for Trump in 2016 fall into three camps: they're either voting for Trump in 2020, voting for Biden in 2020, or not voting at all. All in all it looks like Biden is going to get more votes than Hillary did in 2016 and Trump is going to get fewer votes than he did in 2016. Trump's incredible campaign gaffe in Minnesota has cost him that swing state and is swinging the rest of the swing states of the U.S. Midwest, which is where I live, to Biden. Bottom line - Biden's path to the White House appears to be less shaky than Trump's path to the White House. However, Trump has made comments indicating that he's willing to make this election cycle very ugly and we may be looking at our first non-peaceful transition of power in American history. I'm no political science expert or anything, that's just how things appear to me.
- verdverm 6y ago
  Your first point is off, people have switched camps to the right since last election, despite how hard this may seem to believe. They look at how childish the left has become and have decided the right is less evil.
  - charlesu 6y ago
    > They look at how childish the left has become and have decided the right is less evil. The left is childish? President of the United States literally tweets gifs of himself beating up CNN on Twitter. We live in differently realities. I see one side that shows some semblance of decorum and another that is basically the political equivalent of the Joker but without the charisma and philosophical consistency.
    - SuoDuanDao 6y ago
      >We live in differently realities. That sums it up doesn't it? Both sides only see the worst the other side has to offer. It feeds the algorithm for it to be so. But that illusion is actually quite fragile and hard to maintain, and the other side has an obvious incentive to shatter it by any means available. I would guess a lot of people, on both sides, will switch votes this time around.
shadowgovt 6y ago
Polls currently favor him to win.

by loxs 6y ago

Cederfjard 6y ago

I think that’s a take without merit. It’s certainly not clear-cut. Here’s The Economist and FiveThirtyEight both saying that they favor Biden to win (at the time of my posting this): https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

jcims 6y ago
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
- pirocks 6y ago
  Not sure what your saying. But if your saying they got it wrong they gave trump a 25+% of winning. Things with a 1/4th probability happen all the time.
  - scarmig 6y ago
    Sure, they happen, but how often? One in hundred times?
    - shadowgovt 6y ago
      Things with a 1-in-4 probability happen about 1-in-4 times.
      - scarmig 6y ago
        Bad joke, apparently.
        shadowgovt 6y ago
        Aww, you got me. :) https://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2006/08/25/armadeaddon-grim-exodus https://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2006/08/25/armadeaddon-gr...
- bryanlarsen 6y ago
  Is there a point? 538 showed Trump having a 1 in 4 chance of winning the election on the day of the election. Flipping a coin twice and getting two heads is not particularly surprising. 538 is showing Trump of having a 1 in 5 chance of winning 2020: not favored but very possible. But if you dig deeper, the main reason that his odds are that high is that there's lots of time for stuff to happen between now and November 4th. If the election were to be held today the odds would be 1 in 19 for Trump. edit: rereading it sounds like I'm discrediting the 1 in 5 forecast. Not at all, I think they're right about the 1 in 5. There are two main reasons to go from 1 in 19 to 1 in 5: - future unknown events. Like Comey in 2016. Some of these events will help Biden and some Trump, but if they're random they will pull the odds toward the middle. - when asked who would better handle the economy, Trump has the lead over Biden. Elections have always been about the economy, but 2020 hasn't been so far. Reversion to the norm is always a good guess. I'm badly summarizing 538 in my comments, this is not original thought.
loxs 6y ago
Yeah, and probably Zuck has better data than both ;)

pjc50 6y ago

My money is on Biden receiving the most votes in the popular vote, but Trump still being in power next year, and a huge amount of litigation and riots in the meantime. (Not sure why this got downvoted; Clinton won the popular vote last time, I see no reason that won't happen again?)

ezzzzz 6y ago
Yeah, chiming in from the Mid-West, the Trump base is out in full force. Lots of Trump signs in yards (with varying degrees of offensive slogans), seeing Trump flags flying from the back of pickup truck beds and yards everywhere... one gets the opposite impression. Whether the 'silent-majority' is truly the majority or actually the 'extremely vocal minority' will decide the election. However, there is no denying Trump has a very energized base out here. I have a feeling the Trump will lose the popular vote, but as 2016 has shown, mid America will be the deciding factor. The other troubling thing, as related to the article, is the huge role conspiracy theories like Qanon will play in this election. Just as the article describes, through FB's algorithm, people engaged with traditionally left-leaning communities (non-GMO, alternative medicine etc) are getting sucked into this madness. FB's work to suppress this is not only too little, too late, it also creates a self-enforcing narrative that 'the elites' are actively engaged in a cover-up. It's pretty scary stuff. Not to mention, the cognitive dissonance is only amplified by civil-unrest and a global pandemic. The psyche of the body politic has been absolutely ravaged by the events of 2020, creating a perfect-storm for the unexpected to occur.
- shadowgovt 6y ago
  The midwest likes the Republican candidate, but the entire Midwest gets a the same number of electoral college votes as, what, eight or nine coastal states?
  - ezzzzz 6y ago
    I should have included the South in my assessment, when you have states like Texas and Florida with 2nd and 3rd most (tie) amount of electoral votes, not forgetting 'swing' states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan that have a lot of pull. The middle of the US, and the East Coast South of the Mason-Dixon line is solid red. Gerrymandering has made it so even states like Georgia with a majority African-American population concentrated within congressional districts with enough political power to theoretically do something (Atlanta) will likely never flip blue (assuming said population were to vote blue). Same story where I live in southern Ohio. It's pretty sad. I think the electoral college needs to go away, but I doubt I'll ever see it in my lifetime. Hate to be a bummer on this, just tempering my own expectations.

secondcoming 6y ago

Unfortunately you'll be downvoted to hell once the US west coast gets out of bed.

C1sc0cat 6y ago
Yeh I kind of groked that but when you get Cindy McCain and previous Republican Presidents endorsing Biden. I still maintain that business leaders and journalists have a lot to answer for the rise of far right demagogues that are damaging both Us citizens and pose a threat to world stability.
- mythrwy 6y ago
  Seems like those folks endorsing Biden might be a signal that something is wrong with the Biden camp to people who actually want change.
  - C1sc0cat 6y ago
    People who need to understand that winning and replacing the incumbent is the only priority.
  - pjc50 6y ago
    Biden is the "things don't get worse" candidate. Positive change is simply not on the agenda.
    - mrguyorama 6y ago
      If you wanted positive change this time you should have voted for positive change harder last time but alas, apparently people just stayed home instead. Nothing Trump has done has truly been a surprise. We knew his brand of bullshit and grifting from the beginning, and warned our fellow countrymen and women that this is what would happen. Apparently that just wasn't good enough for some people, so now we are in a desperate fight to prevent the absurd backslide of the US
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

taylodl 6y ago

FWIW here's my take: - No one voting for Hillary in 2016 is voting for Trump in 2020 - People voting for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein in 2016 are either not voting or voting for Biden in 2020 - Democrats who didn't vote in 2016 out of protest for Bernie Sanders not getting the nomination are either not voting again or they're voting for Biden in 2020 - People who voted for Trump in 2016 fall into three camps: they're either voting for Trump in 2020, voting for Biden in 2020, or not voting at all. All in all it looks like Biden is going to get more votes than Hillary did in 2016 and Trump is going to get fewer votes than he did in 2016. Trump's incredible campaign gaffe in Minnesota has cost him that swing state and is swinging the rest of the swing states of the U.S. Midwest, which is where I live, to Biden. Bottom line - Biden's path to the White House appears to be less shaky than Trump's path to the White House. However, Trump has made comments indicating that he's willing to make this election cycle very ugly and we may be looking at our first non-peaceful transition of power in American history. I'm no political science expert or anything, that's just how things appear to me.

verdverm 6y ago
Your first point is off, people have switched camps to the right since last election, despite how hard this may seem to believe. They look at how childish the left has become and have decided the right is less evil.
- charlesu 6y ago
  > They look at how childish the left has become and have decided the right is less evil. The left is childish? President of the United States literally tweets gifs of himself beating up CNN on Twitter. We live in differently realities. I see one side that shows some semblance of decorum and another that is basically the political equivalent of the Joker but without the charisma and philosophical consistency.
  - SuoDuanDao 6y ago
    >We live in differently realities. That sums it up doesn't it? Both sides only see the worst the other side has to offer. It feeds the algorithm for it to be so. But that illusion is actually quite fragile and hard to maintain, and the other side has an obvious incentive to shatter it by any means available. I would guess a lot of people, on both sides, will switch votes this time around.

shadowgovt 6y ago

Polls currently favor him to win.