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I think the pandemic is going to take care of that. We're looking at years before people will feel it's safe to travel again and borders are reopened to touris
by bleepblorp 6y ago
I think the pandemic is going to take care of that.
We're looking at years before people will feel it's safe to travel again and borders are reopened to tourism.
No industry can survive that long without revenue. Once major portions of the civil aviation industry, and it's supply chains, start going into receivership it's going to take a very long time to get it started again. Unmaintained equipment decays, and employees who have found other jobs won't necessarily come back to their old jobs when their ex-employers want them.
Restarting the aviation industry after a multi-year shutdown will require rebuilding a lot of hardware, (re)hiring a lot of people, and rebuilding a vast amount of institutional knowledge. This will take years or even decades--and I wouldn't want to fly on the first airliner to come off a restarted production line staffed mostly by new employees and flown by pilots without much recent experience.
No one has ever needed to attempt restarting an entire industry since the demilitarization of the economy following WWII, and it's unclear if it's even possible anymore.
By the time all is said and done, most people may well be used to doing things other than flying and the demand might not even re-emerge.